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La Liga Best Bets: How to Bet Atletico Madrid vs Valladolid, Elche vs Osasuna, More

La Liga Best Bets: How to Bet Atletico Madrid vs Valladolid, Elche vs Osasuna, More article feature image

La Liga Best Bets are back here at Action Network as we break down a full slate of action in the Spanish top flight this weekend.

What has happened in the league since our last update? Barcelona hold a 3-point lead at the top of the table over Real Madrid, while Real Sociedad have established themselves as the third-best team in Spain.

There are only two points separating the teams in fourth and ninth in the standings, which should make for a great race for European qualification next season. Elche still do not have a victory in the campaign, and a handful of teams could slip into the other two relegation spots.

Join me as I give my three favorite plays from an action-packed weekend in La Liga.

La Liga Best Bets

Atlético Madrid vs. Valladolid

Atlético Odds -275
Valladolid Odds +750
Draw +375
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / -110)
Day | Time Saturday |  12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Things have not gone to plan for Atlético Madrid this season, but I still think Diego Simeone’s men are going to be too much for Valladolid on Saturday.

For starters, the visitors have been terrible away from home this season, owning a -10.6 xGDiff and allowing 16.3 xG on the road, according to fbref.com. This shows even more against the top teams in Spain.

The newly-promoted club has played away at Barcelona and Athletic Club this season and failed to score a goal in the two heavy defeats, getting outscored by seven and only generating 0.65 xG per 90 minutes.

On the campaign, Valladolid have averaged just 0.725 xG and 0.5 big scoring chances per road game, while getting shut out in five of eight away matches. I’m expecting that to continue in this one.

Pund’s Pick: Atlético Madrid – Win to Nil (+105)

Villarreal vs. Girona

Villarreal Odds -135
Girona Odds +340
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / -105)
Day | Time Sunday |  8 a.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

If you remember the beginning of the La Liga season, goals were up more than in past seasons, and I think this is a match that we should see some great attacking action.

Villarreal have been one of the best attacks at home this season, averaging 1.91 xG and 3.43 big-scoring chances per match. Only Real Madrid and Barcelona boast better numbers on the campaign.

Meanwhile, Girona’s road fixtures have been very entertaining, with both teams scoring in seven of eight away from home. There have also been at least three goals in five of those matches.

The Yellow Submarines did have a big Copa del Rey Round of 16 game against Los Blancos in the midweek slate, which could give the visitors a bit of value to get something from this game.

Even if that is the case, Girona’s style this season has been to outscore opponents, which still points to goals in this one.

Pund’s Pick: Single Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score – Yes & Over 2.5 Goals (+100)

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Elche vs. Osasuna

Elche Odds +250
Osasuna Odds +115
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+125 / -175)
Day | Time Sunday |  10:15 a.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

One thing that hasn’t changed since our last update is how bad Elche are. They are the only club to not pick up a victory during this campaign. I don’t see that changing against Osasuna.

The visitors have already proven to be solid away from home against teams towards the bottom of the table, winning at Almería and Celta Vigo. They have also picked up results at Real Madrid and Bilbao.

This is not good for an Elche side that has a -6.8 xGDiff and averages just 0.85 xG per 90 minutes at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.

I’m electing to go with this Single Game Parlay to boost the odds in this match, but I also don’t hate it if you go with just the straight moneyline victory.

All eight of Osasuna’s road fixtures have finished with less than 3.5 goals, while just one of Elche’s home games produced at least four goals.

Pund’s Pick: Single Game Parlay: Osasuna ML & Under 3.5 Goals (+150)

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