La Liga Betting Picks: Odds and Predictions for Deportivo Alaves vs. Real Sociedad

Credit:

Pedro Salado/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Cristian Portugues ‘Portu’ of Real Sociedad.

  • In their first games back following the COVID-19 layoff, both Deportivo Alaves and Real Sociedad struggled.
  • That said, Alaves this season has had stark home/road splits, playing much better at Mendizorroza Stadium, where they'll be today.
  • Is there any value on either of these teams to win or should you focus your bets on the over/under for total goals? We'll break it down below.

Deportivo Alaves vs. Real Sociedad Odds and Pick

Deportivo Alaves odds +325
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Real Sociedad odds -104
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Draw odds +225
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Over/Under 2.5 (+132/-165)
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Time Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET
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Thursday’s La Liga slate kicks off with fourth place Real Sociedad heading to the Mendizorroza Stadium to take on Deportivo Alaves.

Real Sociedad have a lot at stake with Getafe drawing with last place Espanyol on Tuesday. A win could provide them a three point cushion from Getafe and Atletico Madrid (depending on their result Wednesday) for the final Champions League spot.

Alaves are sitting comfortably seven points above the relegation zone, so a win would secure them another season in La Liga.

Alaves

Babazorros El Glorioso came back from the break sluggish, losing 2-0 to last place Espanyol. The result wasn’t shocking as they are the 17th ranked team on the road when it comes to expected goals.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Most of their success this season has come at Mendizorroza Stadium. With 23 points in 14 matches, Babazorros El Glorioso boast a +4.32 goal differential at home.

Defense has been their calling card so far this year, as Alaves only allow 0.95 expected goals per game at home, which ranks sixth in La Liga. Before the world came to halt, Alaves were in good form at home, earning seven of a possible 12 points, with a +2.01 goal differential. Alaves will be a tough outfit for Real Socieded to break down Thursday.

Real Sociedad

It has been a dream season for Real Sociedad. It’s the highest they’ve been in the table since in seven years. However, expected points shows they should be lower in the table, as they rank seventh in expected goal differential of +9.98.

In their first game back from the break, Real Sociedad were disappointing, drawing with Osasuna at home. The expected goals report showed that they struggled to create decent scoring chances as well.

Real Sociedad games have been high scoring this season for La Liga standards, with 2.69 expected goals scored per game. Additionally, their last eight matches have seen an average of 2.96 expected goals per game. It’s easy to see why 68% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals.

Previous Meeting

Real Sociedad blitzed Alaves 3-0 in the reverse fixture at the Anoeta Stadium in September. It was dominate performance for Real Sociedad as they created 4.10 expected goals based on the expected goals report.

Analysis

Based on my model I don’t see any value in backing either side in this match:

  • Alaves projected odds: +268 (27.15% win probability)
  • Real Sociedad projected odds: +111 (47.31% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +292 (25.54% win probability)
  • Alaves projected xG: 1.13
  • Real Sociedad projected xG: 1.52

I have a total of 2.65 expected goals being scored in this game. Since the odds of the over of 2.5 goals is at +132, I like the value on over 2.5 goals.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+132)

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