La Liga Odds, Picks: Best Bets For Athletic Club vs Barcelona & More

La Liga Odds, Picks: Best Bets For Athletic Club vs Barcelona & More article feature image

NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Ansu Fati.

La Liga picks back up this weekend with a full slate of matches all across Spain, which includes a pair of top 10 battles and multiple six-pointers at the bottom of the table.

Barcelona hit the road to take on Athletic Club on Sunday, looking to extend their lead in first to double digits for the first time this season. The other headliner of match day 25 is Villarreal hosting Real Betis as both teams push for European qualification.

My best bets start in a game between sides looking to avoid relegation in Elche and Valladolid, which is a match where I see goals. Meanwhile, I also see a high-scoring affair in Almería’s trip to Sevilla in another key fixture around the drop zone.

Let’s dive into these matches in the Spanish top flight to pull out the best betting angles of the weekend in La Liga.

La Liga Odds & Picks

Elche vs Valladolid

Elche Odds+160
Valladolid Odds+175
Over/Under2.5 (+110 / -138)
Day | TimeSaturday |  10:15 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

For as bad as the offenses have been for these sides, the defenses have been much worse, which should lead to chances in front of goal.

Starting first with the hosts, Elche have one of the worst defensive units in Europe, ranking towards the bottom of La Liga in xGA per 90 minutes (2.1), opponents’ shots per game (15.21) and big chances surrendered per match (3.33), according to

Offensively, the team at the foot of the league table has shown signs of improvement since the World Cup break at home, averaging 1.56 xG and 2.6 big chances over this stretch.

As for the visitors, Valladolid’s defense has not traveled well, ranking 19th in xG allowed (25.1) and 17th in big chances given up (40) on the road. This is also the same side that has only kept one clean sheet away from home in 12 attempts.

Both will need a win here, so all it takes is one defensive mistake to open this match up.

Pund's Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-110)

Sevilla vs Almería

Sevilla Odds-163
Almería Odds+500
Over/Under2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | TimeSunday |  11:15 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

It is a scary feeling to like goals in multiple La Liga matches, but I’m going to attack another pair of weak defensive sides.

Do you want to know a team that joins Elche toward the bottom of the league in multiple defensive categories? It would be Almería, who have allowed the most big chances in the Spanish top flight to go along with the second-most goals.

Almería are also joined by Valencia and Girona as the only clubs to fail to pick up a clean sheet on the road. This is not good for a side that is coming up against a Sevilla team that has averaged 2.08 xG at home since the World Cup break.

While that is good for the Andalusian club, it is also worth noting that they are still giving up 1.51 expected goals over this same period in La Liga. Sevilla could top this total by themselves, but it wouldn’t shock me if Almería also found the back of the net.

Pund's Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)

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Athletic Club vs Barcelona

Bilbao Odds+240
Barcelona Odds+120
Over/Under2.5 (+120 / -150)
Day | TimeSunday |  4 p.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

For my final best bet of the weekend, I’m going to continue to ride a Barcelona team that can primarily focus on the league.

I also don’t trust Athletic Club against top opposition, as they have only picked up four points out of a maximum of 21 in matches versus the top six clubs. How can I expect them to score with how well the league leaders have defended recently?

Since returning from the World Cup, Barcelona have only allowed 1.4 big chances per match and three goals in La Liga.

They have shown that they aren’t going to overcommit men forward against sides that try to sit back and counter on them like the hosts will try to do here.

I’m electing to just play the moneyline, but I don’t hate pairing this play with the total falling under four (+180) or five goals (+140) for a bigger price.

Pund's Pick: Barcelona ML (+120)

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