Seria A Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Lazio vs. AC Milan (Saturday, July 5)

Lazio vs. AC Milan Odds, Picks

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A huge matchup in the top half of the table takes place Saturday afternoon at the Stadio Olimpico.

Lazio trails Juventus by four points for the top spot in Serie A. With Juventus having a favorable matchup against Torino earlier in the day, the pressure could be turned up to the max by game time. Dropping points in this match is not an option for I Biancocelesti, as it could effectively end their hopes of their first Serie A title in 20 years.

AC Milan is fighting for its European football life at the moment. Currently sitting two points behind Napoli for the final Europa League spot, Rossoneri could jump them in the table for the time being.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Lazio

It's been a dream season for I Biancocelesti, who find themselves in the Serie A title race for the first time in five years.

A lot of their success has come at Stadio Olimpico this season: They're undefeated at home and boast a +17.7 expected goal differential. After a slow start to the season, they ripped off an unprecedented 18 wins in their last 21 matches. Over that span, they've been consistent at both ends of the pitch, winning on average by 0.79 xG per game (1.89 xGF, 1.10 xGA).

Lazio's attack is led by Ciro Immobile, who leads Serie A with 29 goals in 29 appearances. The Italian boasts a 0.80 xG per 90 minute rate, which is second only to Cristiano Ronaldo in Serie A.

But the main man behind Lazio's success has been midfielder Luis Alberto. The Spaniard is point guard of their system and has been one of the best attacking midfielders in Serie A. He has more touches and passes than any other Lazio player this season, while also leading the league in key passes (84), through-balls (14) and assists (14) (via whoscored).

AC Milan

Rossoneri were disappointing in their match on Wednesday, needing a 94th-minute own goal to draw with 19th-place SPAL. AC Milan fell behind by two goals early but were benefited with a man advantage at the end of the first half. Unfortunately, they couldn't rally to beat a 10-man relegation side.

It's been an interesting season for Rossoneri. Sitting on 42 points, AC Milan’s +9.49 expected goal differential is eighth in Serie A and suggests that their results are pretty much in line with how they’ve performed this season.

AC Milan has struggled against teams above them in the table, especially on the road. Rossoneri has lost their last four games versus the top-five teams in the table, losing the expected goals battle 6.68 to 4.30.

Analysis

Lazio's moneyline is sitting at a good price at the moment of +135, especially since they're at home. Based on my model, I think the home side is slightly undervalued in this match:

• Lazio projected odds: +114 (46.65% win probability)
• AC Milan projected odds: +251 (28.52% win probability)
• Draw projected odds: +303 (24.82% win probability)
• Lazio projected xG: 1.59
• AC Milan projected xG: 1.20

Based on those numbers, I am going to back Lazio to grab all three points at home.