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Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Back Texas Outfit Via This Prop Bet in Opening Half (June 29)

Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Back Texas Outfit Via This Prop Bet in Opening Half (June 29) article feature image
Credit:

Omar Vega/Getty Images. Pictured: FC Dallas standout Paul Arriola.

  • Carlos Vela and LAFC host FC Dallas in Wednesday's featured MLS showdown.
  • Analyst Ian Quillen breaks down the match and has uncovered a solid prop bet.
  • Check out below which side he has landed on in this Western Conference tussle.

LAFC vs. FC Dallas Odds

LAFC Odds -145
FC Dallas Odds +340
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +120)
Day | Time Wednesday | 10:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch FS1 | fuboTV
Odds updated as of Wednesday evening via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Los Angeles Football Club tries to extend its Supporters’ Shield lead on Wednesday when it faces an FC Dallas side that’s a difficult foe home or away.

Attacker Carlos Vela’s LAFC enters the midweek with a four-point lead in the Shield over Philadelphia and Real Salt Lake. The club is playing a second consecutive home contest in four days after a 2-0 win last Sunday against the New York Red Bulls.

Dallas is only seven points back of LAFC in its first year under manager Nico Estevez. However, last Saturday’s 2-2 draw at Austin FC might feel more like a loss after Dallas gave back a two-goal lead in the second half.

These teams haven’t tangled since 2021, when LAFC won both meetings.

Los Angeles Football Club

While the whole world has been talking about Gareth Bale’s imminent arrival, LAFC is already playing quite well without the Welsh superstar.

Cristian Arango scored his fifth goal since the start of April and third in as many matches in last Sunday’s win, while coming off the bench. Vela still leads the team with six goals.

And as a group, LAFC has been extremely consistent under first-year manager Steve Cherundolo, creating more expected goals than its opponents in all but one match, which came in a 2-0 loss at Colorado in the middle of May.

This is LAFC’s last game before Bale could possible join the side when the secondary transfer window opens July 7.

By The Numbers

  • 22 of 32 — Proportion of LAFC goals scored in the second half.
  • 11 of 32 — Proportion of LAFC goals scored by substitutes.
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FC Dallas

Wednesday’s visitors have two of the elite American attackers in the league.

Striker Jesus Ferreira is tied for the league scoring lead with nine goals. And winger Paul Arriola has eight in what’s already the best output of his career.

However, Dallas has sputtered a little recently, earning only four points over its last five matches despite posting a +2.0 xGDiff during that stretch.

Even so, it’s still one of the best away MLS teams, with only two losses in seven games played. The club’s -0.1 away xGDiff is the fourthhighest in the Western Conference.

By The Numbers

  • 65.4 — Percentage of Dallas’ total goals scored by Ferreira and Arriola.
  • 2-4-0 — Dallas’ away record (W-L-D) when not conceding a penalty.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

There’s probably value on Dallas here, but LAFC’s consistency means you might want to leverage somewhere other than on the money line.

And the first-half trends provide such an opportunity.

Cherundolo’s LAFC wears opponents down and does its damage primarily after halftime, armed with a high-tempo possession approach that grinds down defenses and some exceptional depth.

Meanwhile, Estevez’s FC Dallas has been plenty content to sit deep and counterattack on the road. And the side is good at it, giving up only two game-winning goals, both coming on penalties.

Put those tendencies together and LAFC has led at half in just two of its nine home matches. Dallas has trailed at the half in just two of eight away games.

That’s only 23.5% of games in the relevant samples ending with the away team either tied or in the lead. So, although it’s a conservative bet, there’s a lot of value playing Dallas to at least be level at the half. At -165 odds, a Dallas or Draw Double Chance first-half wager comes with an implied 62.3% probability.

The Pick: Double Chance (1H) — Dallas or Draw (-165)

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