MLS Best Bets, Odds: Our 3 Top Midweek Picks, Including Houston Dynamo vs. New England Revolution

MLS Best Bets, Odds: Our 3 Top Midweek Picks, Including Houston Dynamo vs. New England Revolution article feature image

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: New England Revolution star Carles Gil.

  • There are five MLS games on Tuesday, and our soccer analyst has three best bets lined up for you to tail.
  • He's eying one total and two other team total bets.
  • Check out Ian Nicholas Quillen's picks and analysis below.

We're fewer than four weeks from the close of the Major League Soccer season, which rolls on Tuesday and Wednesday with a nine-match slate.

The Columbus Crew can take a step closer to locking up a playoff berth and keeping Inter Miami out when they meet in a six-pointer Tuesday night in South Florida.

Later that night, a New England Revolution playmaker is likely to return in a game against the Houston Dynamo after missing the weekend for the birth of his first child.

Simultaneously, Wayne Rooney's D.C. United are building for next year and can continue showing improvement when they visit Sporting Kansas City.

Here are your three best bets for the midweek slate.

Our 3 Midweek MLS Best Bets

Miami vs. Columbus

Miami Odds+140
Columbus Odds+190
Over/Under2.5 (-115 / +115)
Day | TimeTuesday | 8 p.m. ET
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Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Miami's home-away trends didn't pan out over the weekend when I opted to play the under and a wager on both teams not to score.

But if you watched the game, it was still the right bet, with the teams combining for only 1.7 combined non-penalty xG on the night.

So I'm certainly not afraid to back their opposing tendencies again, this time supporting them playing to a higher total at home against a Columbus side that is also open to wider open affairs away.

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Miami remains a possession-based side, and Columbus has become a transition club despite manager Caleb Porter's best wishes to be on the front foot more often.

That's a good formula for higher scoring when the possession-based team is home. And the splits this year back it up, with the total going over 2.5 goals in 10 of 14 occasions in Miami and eight of 14 times when Columbus has traveled.

If you take the total up to 3.5 goals, each team has seen it surpassed in six of those 14 occasions.

So playing a wager above either the 2.5 or 3.5 line is good value. I like being aggressive here with a wager on the total above 3.5 odds at +220 odds and an implied 31.3% probability, if for no other reason than I generally think it pays to take bigger chances in MLS when the numbers support it.

By The Numbers

  • 42.9% — Hit rate on the total above 3.5 goals in Miami home and Columbus away matches (12 for 28)
  • 2.76 — Teams combined xG per 90 minutes in those matches

Quillen's Pick: Over 3.5 Goals (+220)

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Houston vs. New England

 Houston Odds+150
New England Odds+165
Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | TimeTuesday | 8:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In most circumstances, a quick turnaround benefits the home side, but that's probably not the case when the Houston Dynamo host the New England Revolution.

The Dynamo spent most of their debut under interim manager Kenny Bundy chasing and defending on Saturday night after going down to 10 men relatively early in a 0-0 home draw to Sporting Kansas City.

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Meanwhile, New England is likely to get a key attacking reinforcement in the 2021 MLS MVP Gil and therefore take a more attacking posture than in its 2-1 weekend loss at the New York Red Bulls.

The Revs have scored at least twice in nine of their previous 15 away games, and the Dynamo have conceded at least two goals in six of 15 at home.

So I like playing New England to do that here against a leggy opponent at +122 odds and an implied 45% probability. It's better value in my view than backing the Revs on the moneyline or a higher two-team total because the value of those are contingent on the Dynamo's effort level at the end of a lost season.

By The Numbers

  • 50% — How often the visiting team scores twice in Revolution away and Houston home games.
  • 1.44 — Houston's xG against per 90 minutes at home.

Quillen's Pick: New England Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+122)

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Kansas City vs. D.C. United

 Kansas City Odds-155
D.C. Odds+350
Over/Under2.5 (-160 / +130)
Day | TimeTuesday | 8:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

No team in MLS has experienced a more dramatic in-season tactical shift than D.C. United.

The Black-and-Red began the year under the command of young Argentine Hernan Losada, who implemented a lot of the high-octane principles of famed countryman Marcelo Bielsa.

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It's been almost the polar opposite since Rooney, the former famed Manchester United and England striker, took charge. Although he was known for his dynamic attacking play, as a manager there are a lot of similarities to his first pro manager, the pragmatic David Moyes.

That fact — coupled with trends skewing toward lower scoring home games for Sporting Kansas City — make playing a low total a good play here.

Based on track record, the best value is to buy a half-goal and play an Asian handicap wager on the total hitting under three goals at -130 odds and an implied 56.5% probability.

Since D.C. implemented Rooney's preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, the total has gone above three only once and beneath it on four occasions during seven away games. The total has gone below three eight times and above three only three times in 14 SKC home matches.

By The Numbers

  • 8-3-3 — Bettors' record on a total under 3 goals (win-loss-push) in SKC's 14 home games.
  • 2.47 — Teams' combined xG per 90 minutes since D.C. switched formations

Quillen's Pick: Total Under 3 goals, Asian handicap (-130)

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