MLS Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bets for Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United, More

MLS Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bets for Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United, More article feature image

Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Thiago Almada.

Matchday 10 of the MLS calendar begins with a special lunchtime kickoff when Nashville SC hosts Atlanta United on FOX.

It continues Saturday night at Soldier Field, where both the Chicago Fire and New York Red Bulls look to bounce back from disappointing losses.

Then it wraps up with a Sunday night clash between Minnesota United and FC Dallas that serves as a second bonus national TV game on FS1.

Here's how we're playing our MLS best bets for the slate.

MLS Odds & Picks

Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United

Nashville Odds+115
Atlanta Odds+230
Over/Under2.5 (-115 / -105)
Day | TimeSaturday |  1:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchFOX | Apple TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

First, I confess a little ignorance here. Last week, I played Atlanta's Thiago Almada to give an assist (+200; BetRivers), believing only a primary assist — i.e., the last pass to the scorer — would cash. That's the way it works in most other global leagues, with MLS an exception in terms of crediting up to two assists per goal.

However, Almada picked up a secondary assist on Atlanta's opener. And when I looked at my app later that evening, my bet had paid out. You'll take wins wherever you can get them.

Anyway, Almada is questionable again. But with striker Giorgos Giakoumakis ruled out with a hamstring issue, the Argentine will be Atlanta's best goal-scoring threat if he makes the start.

He's also the likely penalty taker in Giakoumakis' absence and already his side's main free-kick taker.

Nashville has been stout defensively, but LAFC playmaker Denis Bouanga demonstrated last weekend that the Coyotes' rearguard is human.

The +330 odds and implied 23.3% probability are cheap enough to back Almada to do so again here.

Quillen's Pick: Thiago Almada anytime goalscorer (+330, PointsBet)

Chicago vs. New York Red Bulls

Chicago Odds+140
RBNY Odds+190
Over/Under2.5 (+110/ -160)
Day | TimeSaturday |  8:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchMLS Season Pass
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

The Red Bulls continue to be the bookmakers' expected goals darling despite not having anyone who looks remotely close to finding their goal-scoring form.

Prized offseason acquisition Dante Vanzeir is serving a six-match ban for a racist remark he made — and admitted to — in a 1-1 draw against the San Jose Earthquakes. Winger Lewis Morgan has failed to score in 2023 after hitting 14 goals during a 2022 season that always looked like an outlier.

The Fire have been under the radar given their long-standing history of incompetence and somewhat unsexy offseason. But there are signs of genuine improvement here. They've been in every game they've played and lost only twice all season while also going unbeaten at home.

Academy prospect Brian Gutierrez has emerged as a legitimate starting-caliber MLS attacking central midfielder, and Kei Kamara still has goals in him at age 38.

A draw is certainly a possibility given both teams struggle to pull away from opponents. I also don't buy the odds that suggest a Red Bulls win is more likely than the game finishing even.

I'm playing the draw on the home-no-bet market at -110 odds and a 52.4% probability that all games that don't finish as Fire victories will finish even. A Chicago win and the bet is void.

Quillen's Pick: Draw, home no bet (-110, BetMGM)

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Minnesota vs. Dallas

Minnesota Odds+130
Dallas Odds+200
Over/Under2.5 (-115/ -110)
Day | TimeSunday |  9 p.m. ET
How To WatchFS1 | Apple TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Minnesota United have yet to win at home and have three away victories so far on the season.

There's probably a little something to that, given how they've had to adopt a counter-attacking posture as a default due to the indefinite absence of Emanuel Reynoso.

But against a Dallas team that wants to be ball dominant, this could set up tactically more like one of those away matches for Minnesota.

Also, the xG metrics and other analytics suggest these teams are even. If you believe that, then you believe there's probably close to a 50-50 chance the Loons win this one. (Maybe more if you buy into the idea they're also due for a home victory.) The home win rate in MLS hovered around 48% in 2021 and 2022, and it's actually 52% so far in 2023.

At +130 odds, you're playing an implied 43.5% probability of Minnesota's victory.

Quillen's Pick: Minnesota ML (+130, DraftKings)

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