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Netherlands vs Ecuador Odds & Prediction | World Cup Preview

Netherlands vs Ecuador Odds & Prediction | World Cup Preview article feature image
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Dean Mouhtaropolous/Getty Images.

  • The Netherlands are favored over Ecuador at the World Cup on Friday.
  • Both teams started their tournament with a win in Group A play.
  • BJ Cunningham previews the game and makes his betting pick below.

Netherlands vs. Ecuador Odds

Friday, Nov. 25
11 a.m. ET
FOX
Netherlands Odds -138
Ecuador Odds +425
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (+110 / -138)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-106 / -125)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Netherlands and Ecuador will battle in Group A in a match that could decide who wins the group.

The Oranje may have won 2-0 over Senegal, but they were not very impressive for a majority of the match. Either way, they are now in a perfect position if they win this match to cruise into the knockout stage.

Ecuador were very impressive from the opening whistle against the host nation Qatar and they showed the pace up the wings that made them so dangerous during CONMEBOL qualifying. However, the Netherlands are a much more difficult opponent than Qatar, so we’ll see how the South American side fairs.

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Netherlands Need Improved Attack

The Dutch scored two late goals, but they were only able to create 0.7 xG on 10 shots, which is very inefficient.

Senegal 0-2 Netherlands: It took them a while to get into this one, but the Netherlands pick up where they left off back in 2014. That’s four straight #FIFAWorldCup clean sheets for the Oranje.#SENNED pic.twitter.com/pTy7ksOEEz

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) November 21, 2022

The main problem is they started Steven Bergwijn and Vincent Janssen up top in their 3-4-1-2 system, which is not the best front two the Dutch have. Memphis Depay did come off the bench, so I would expect him to start up top in this match to give the Netherlands more of an attacking threat.

Louis van Gaal has been in charge since August of 2021 and the Dutch are unbeaten with improved underlying metrics. He switched the Netherlands to a three at the back that usually goes with Matthijs De Ligt, Virgil van Djik and Nathan Ake. That is a change from the Euros because Frank de Boer played a center back pairing of De Ligt and De Vrij. So, the Dutch have improved drastically on the defensive end. 

They will likely be controlling most of the possession and the battle in the middle of the pitch between Frankie de Jong and Moises Caicedo will be pivotal in deciding this match. De Jong was outstanding against Senegal, controlling the tempo and starting the build up play for the Netherlands.

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Ecuador Face Improved Competition

Ecuador were outstanding from the opening whistle against Qatar, scoring two quick goals and then held onto that lead all the way through the final whistle.

In the end, Ecuador were only able to create 1.0 xG and they only took six shots. In fact, they only had six shots for the entire match and only took three shots after the second goal went in the back of the net.

What we are going to see more in this match is Ecuador out of possession, rather than trying to break down a low block.

When Ecuador is out of possession, they love to set pressing traps, as their high line will almost always turn into a mid-block as the match goes on.

Caicedo is at the center of it because he’s one of the best one the best ball winning midfielders in the Premier League. So, they’ll let you come across the half-way line onto the edge of the final third and then Caicedo and the other midfielders will bring a full force press right in your face.

The other concern is that Enner Valencia picked up an injury against Qatar and is currently questionable to play in this match. If he is out, Ecuador do not have another striker behind him.

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Netherlands vs. Ecuador Prediction

Perhaps the biggest concern for Ecuador in this match is during CONMEBOL qualifying and Copa America when they had to play Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, they were not very competitive. In eight matches against those three opponents, they conceded 13.9 xG, while only creating 7.52.

The price on Netherlands has dropped quite considerably and I think it is a massive overreaction to Ecuador’s win over Qatar. Before the tournament started, the Netherlands were as high as -180 and now they’ve dropped all the way down to -125, which I think is too cheap for how talented this side is.

The Pick: Netherlands ML (-125)

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