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Euro 2020 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Netherlands vs. Ukraine Betting Preview (June 13)

Euro 2020 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Netherlands vs. Ukraine Betting Preview (June 13) article feature image

NESImages/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Memphis Depay.

  • Netherlands opens its Euro 2020 journey in Amsterdam on Sunday when it faces Ukraine.
  • Andriy Shevchenko's Ukrainian team has proved a tough out for big nations around Europe over the past few years, and this match should be no different.
  • Ian Quillen explains below where he sees betting value in the Group C contest and delivers his top selection.

Netherlands vs. Ukraine Odds

Netherlands Odds -155
Ukraine Odds +480
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (+114 / -137)
Day | Time Sunday | 3 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

The second match of Group C features sides managed by men whose future with their teams is in question, albeit for different reasons.

Netherlands’ Frank de Boer has drawn more criticism than praise in less than a year at the helm of the Dutch side, for whom he previously featured on the back line in two World Cups and two European Championships.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Andriy Shevchenko has more than hinted at a desire to manage in club football — perhaps at the AC Milan club he famously played for — when his tenure in charge of his native Ukraine comes to an end.

A good tournament opening result for either man could put speculation out of sight and mind, at least for a moment.

Netherlands Tinkering with New Tactics?

It’s hard to glean much from pre-tournament friendlies.

But noteworthy from the Netherlands’ 2-2 draw with Scotland and a 3-0 win over Georgia is de Boer’s employment of a 5-3-2 formation to start both.

That’s a change from the 4-3-3 shape the Oranje have used through most of de Boer’s brief tenure. It most likely reflects a desire to get live match action in a tactical Plan B, rather than a sudden identity shift. Even so, it gives Shevchenko and other managers something to think about.

Also good — if expected news — from those friendlies is Memphis Depay just keeps scoring.

The Lyon forward scored 20 goals and assisted 12 more in the recent Ligue 1 campaign, and is on ActionNetwork’s radar in the Golden Boot futures market.

His three goals across those two tuneups may only add to that hype.

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Ukraine Gets Results Against Europe’s Best Teams

Under Shevchenko, Ukraine have been a difficult side for traditional European powers.

Portugal took only a point from a pair of matches in Euro 2020 qualifying. France were held to a 1-1 home draw early in qualifying for the 2022 World Cup. And Ukraine avenged a 4-0 UEFA Nations League away to Spain with a 1-0 victory later in the same tournament.

Germany did sweep Ukraine in their two Nations League matches, but you get the point.

Playing as favorites in 2022 qualifying has been a different story, with 1-1 home draws to Finland and Khazakhstan canceling out the impact of their hard-earned point in France.

Pre-tournament friendly wins over Northern Ireland (1-0) and Cyprus (4-0) won’t dispel doubts that Ukraine can excel when they’re expected to shoulder most of the impetus for chance creation. A breakout performance from striker Roman Yarmechunk could.

The 24-year-old had  a career-best 17 Juliper Leagues goals with Gent this season. Yarmechunk also found the net against Cyprus and has a goal in World Cup Qualifying, the latter representing a slow start compared to the four he scored in five Euro 2020 qualifier appearances.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

According to BJ Cunningham’s projections, the value is on an objectively more talented Netherlands roster.

However, those projections take into a home field edge in Amsterdam. And with de Boer in charge, Holland may be the rare team that would rather be playing in a neutral venue.

De Boer was the first manager in Dutch national team history to fail to win any of his first three matches. While results have improved since, patience is short. If things don’t go well early against Ukraine, the crowd could turn.

Ukraine have proven the ability to earn results against Europe’s elite — albeit mostly at home — and they may be hurt in projection models because of a roster that skews young and domestically based. At 26.4 years, their average age is fourth-youngest in the tournament.

The straight draw is a reasonable bet here. But the insurance against Ukraine winning outright is cheap enough to bundle the two results in Ukraine-or-Draw on a Double Chance wager at +130 odds and a 43.5% implied probability.

Pick: Double Chance — Ukraine or Draw (+130)

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