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New York Red Bulls vs. Toronto FC Betting Odds, Preview, Picks, Predictions: Expect Offenses to Light Up Scoreboard (June 18)

New York Red Bulls vs. Toronto FC Betting Odds, Preview, Picks, Predictions: Expect Offenses to Light Up Scoreboard (June 18) article feature image
Credit:

Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto FC standout Alejandro Pozuelo.

RBNY vs. Toronto FC Odds

RBNY Odds -350
Toronto FC Odds +850
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +125) 
Day | Time Saturday | 7 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The New York Red Bulls try to reverse their largest losing streak of the season on Saturday against a Toronto FC side in search of its first away win.

The Red Bulls sit fourth in the Eastern Conference following a 2-0 loss at Charlotte FC a weekend ago that betrayed their good road form overall.

Toronto FC was idle in the June international window after halting a six-match winless run with a 3-2 victory over the Chicago Fire on May 28. The Reds sit 12th in the East as they await Italian star Lorenzo Insinge’s July arrival.

The Red Bulls routed Toronto, 4-1, at BMO Field back on March 5.

New York Red Bulls

Manager Gerhard Struber’s men have been among the weirder MLS teams in 2022 with their reverse splits.

The Red Bulls have earned 16 of their 23 points away from home in a league where the average home side wins just under half their matches.

Their fanatical devotion to high pressing perhaps explains some of that oddity. However,  the same manager playing the same system amounted to a more normal split of 30 points home and 18 away last season.

They could also use some more consistent center forward play. Patryk Klimala is underperforming his expected goals for a second consecutive season, plus Andy Fletcher hasn’t provided much competition for a place from the bench.

Lineup notes

  • Midfielder Cristian Casseres Jr. is questionable in league health & safety protocols and would be a key loss if unavailable.
  • Forward/midfielder Caden Clark is away with the U.S. U-20 national team at the CONCACAF championships.

By The Numbers

  • +3.5 — The Red Bulls’ xGDiff mark at home despite having only one win in seven games at Red Bull Arena.
  • 6 — Total goals from Lewis Morgan, which is already the high for the Scottish winger in his third season in the league and first with the Red Bulls.
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Toronto FC

Manager Bob Bradley is still waiting on Insigne to arrive, but it’s on defense where his side might need further reinforcements.

The Reds have yet to keep a clean sheet in 14 games, conceding multiple goals on eight occasions. Their offense has kept them in games, but when it doesn’t score at least twice, they’ve earned only one point.

Despite all that, they have two high-quality wins on their résumé, home to Eastern Conference contender New York City FC and Philadelphia.

If nothing else, Bradley has sold his squad on the idea it can play with anyone. Now he’s looking for some consistency, particularly in the back.

Lineup notes

  • Midfielder Jonathan Osorio (lower body) is questionable after exiting just 11 minutes into the win against Chicago.
  • Defender Chris Mavinga (lower body) has been upgraded to questionable. The center back last played on April 30.

By The Numbers

  • 3-0-0 — Toronto FC’s record when 2020 MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo scores
  • -17.6 — Toronto’s overall expected goal difference, which is the worst in MLS.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

Even with the Red Bulls’ wonky home numbers, the market really likes them here. And I get it.

They’re a better, more complete team, but built into that price is the expectation they’ll hold the visitors scoreless. Why? I don’t know.

Even without Insigne, Toronto’s trio of Jesus Jimenez (seven goals, three assists), Pozuelo (four goals, four assists) and Osorio (three goals, four assists) is among the more dangerous trios in the league.

And the Red Bulls have kept only clean sheets this season. Casseres’ possible absence could make it harder to keep a fourth in this meeting.

There are a few ways you could leverage this game. Playing an upset or Toronto on a handicap aren’t awful ideas.

I think backing Both Teams To Score (Yes) at even money and a 50% implied probability is an even better one, though. It’s a trend that has a 69% hit rate overall with these teams, which rises to 71.4% with relevant home-road splits.

The Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (+100)

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