Newcastle United vs. Chelsea Premier League Preview, Pick: Better Team to Win on Saturday

Newcastle United vs. Chelsea Premier League Preview, Pick: Better Team to Win on Saturday article feature image

Robbie Jay Barratt/Getty. Pictured: Raheem Sterling.

  • Newcastle United is favored to beat Chelsea in the Premier League.
  • Are the Magpies a worthy favorite?
  • Nicholas Hennion offers his best bet and prediction.

Newcastle United vs. Chelsea Odds

Newcastle Odds+130
Chelsea Odds+210
Over/Under2.5 (-115 / -120)
Day | TimeSaturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchNBC
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

For Saturday's marquee Premier League fixture, Newcastle United welcome Chelsea to the St. James' Park.

In one of the bigger surprises of the season, Newcastle sit third in the table and enter this match unbeaten in their last nine fixtures, including four consecutive victories. On the flip-side, Chelsea sit seventh in the table and are winless in four, including a home loss to Arsenal last week.

Last season, Chelsea dominated this head-to-head matchup, winning both meetings by an aggregate 4-0 margin.

Newcastle United in Midst of Excellent Run

It simply can't be overstated how well manager Eddie Howe has transformed this squad, but there are a few elements worth noting.

Through 14 Premier League fixtures, Newcastle have a +10.99 xGOT differential and a +14 big scoring chances differential. Both of those metrics are the third-best marks in the Premier League.

Additionally, this side has yet to post an outright defeat at home and has recorded strong underlying metrics. In seven matches at the St. James' Park, Newcastle have a +0.9 xGOT differential per 90 minutes and a +1.57 big chances differential per 90 at home.

Most of that success can be attributed to a strong attack, which has created 1.98 xGOT per 90 minutes at home versus 1.49 xGOT/90 away from home.

Chelsea Struggling Outside of Stamford Bridge

Considering the overall talent of this squad, Chelsea have massively disappointed away from home this season.

Through their first seven trips in the Premier League, manager Graham Potter's side has a -1.66 xGOT differential away from home and a -6 big scoring chances differential. Throw out the two road fixtures against bottom-six sides and Chelsea's road xGOT differential rises to -4.55, or -0.91 xGOT per 90 minutes.

Most of those struggles can be attributed to poor defensive play from Chelsea. In all seven road fixtures, the Blues have conceded 1.52 xGOT per 90 minutes and 2.28 big scoring chances per 90 minutes.

Offensively, Chelsea have created only 1.28 xGOT per 90 away from home, including 0.98 xGOT per 90 in the five road fixtures against non-bottom six sides.

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Newcastle United vs. Chelsea Pick

Call me square if you want, but I'm all over Newcastle United in this match.

As referenced earlier, Eddie Howe's side is unbeaten at home and performs markedly better offensively in front of their supporters. Given Chelsea's dismal offensive record against quality sides away from home, I worry the Blues won't be able to keep up offensively.

Remember, too, that this Newcastle side created 2.34 xGOT against Manchester City, a defense I rate miles ahead of Chelsea's current iteration.

Plus, the Newcastle defense has already shown it is capable of shutting down strong sides. Despite conceding nearly 4 xGOT to City, they've held Manchester United and Tottenham to 0.16 and 0.99 xGOT, respectively, in their last two matches against big six sides.

Given both of those came away from home, I'm confident Newcastle can shut down Chelsea at home, where their defense has played much better.

For those reasons, back Newcastle on the three-way moneyline down to +100.

Pick: Newcastle United ML

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