Newcastle vs Bournemouth Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Anthony Gordon.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -110 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211/+160 |
Newcastle looks to keep their positive momentum going as they host Bournemouth at St. James Park.
Eddie Howe's side has won three of their past four matches and are starting to contend for a European place in the table after a bad run of form in November and December. Newcastle's style of play has changed as they are now playing incredibly high-event matches.
Bournemouth made a big surge out of the relegation fight and into the middle of the Premier League table, but have since hit a rough patch. The Cherries are winless in their past five Premier League matches, which is especially concerning because the past three have been against West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Fulham. A result here is vital for Andoni Iraola's men to continue their ascension up the table.
Check out our Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction below.
Newcastle
The new version of Newcastle has some weaknesses that can be easily exploited. First off, they are back to pressing aggressively out of their 4-3-3, instead of the passive 4-5-1 that we saw for an extended period of time. They are pushing their back line up high and going man to man marking the opposing attacking players, which is incredibly aggressive and dangerous because of the personnel they have across their backline.
Newcastle’s backline is slow by Premier League standards and since they switched to this new pressing structure, both Luton Town and Nottingham Forest have utilized pace to get in behind their back line and create chances.
The Newcastle defense has been in shambles for a long time now. They’ve conceded the most expected goals in the Premier League since the start of November and in their past seven matches, they’ve conceded 17 big scoring chances, so it seems Howe has decided to just go for it and make matches incredibly high event.
Since the beginning of November, Newcastle matches are averaging 4.1 expected goals per 90 minutes and nine of their past 11 matches have had at least three total expected goals created.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth has a lot of pace and plays much better when they are in transition, which is where this match is most likely going to be played.
The previous meeting between these two was the first sign that Bournemouth had turned the corner under Iraola. In that match, Bournemouth created a bunch of high turnovers and ended up with 2.4 expected goals. Since that match on November 11th, Bournemouth is averaging 1.78 expected goals per 90 minutes and have created at least one expected goal in 12 straight matches.
Iraola’s hybrid press is really starting to work. Since November 11, Bournemouth have the third-best PPDA in the Premier League at 8.7 and lead the league in goals scored off of high turnovers with seven.
Dominic Solanke has benefited from Iraola’s system because he's a fantastic striker at finding space off the opponents back line. Solanke is second in the Premier League in non-penalty goals (11) this season and will certainly cause problems for Newcastle.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Prediction
This is about the worst possible matchup for Newcastle's defense.
Not only will Bournemouth be able to make runs in behind, but they will also have big advantages on set pieces. Newcastle is 18th in xG per set piece allowed, while the Cherries have been the third-most efficient team on set pieces this year.
This is a match that should be very back and forth between teams that like to play in transition, so I am expecting another high-event match.
I have 3.8 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Over 3.5 goals at +125.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+125 via DraftKings)
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