Premier League Week 2: Is Longshot Crystal Palace Worth a Wager vs. Liverpool?

Premier League Week 2: Is Longshot Crystal Palace Worth a Wager vs. Liverpool? article feature image

John Peters/Man Utd via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United’s Paul Pogba

  • Week 2 of the Premier League features three matches on Sunday, and wraps up on Monday with Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace (3 p.m. ET, NBC Sports).
  • After analyzing the current betting market and using available historical data, I've picked out three value plays.

The excitement level in the Premier League certainly picked up on Saturday (at least after Cardiff and Newcastle finished 0-0) with some thrillers, including Chelsea defeating Arsenal, 3-2.

Sunday features three vastly different matches with Burnley-Watford, Manchester City-Huddersfield and Manchester United-Brighton on the slate. Week 2 action wraps up on Monday with Crystal Palace hosting Liverpool.

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Using the current betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out three value plays.

2018-19 Season Record: 2-5-1, -0.84 units

Watford at Burnley (8:30 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)

  • Burnley Odds: +152
  • Watford Odds: +229
  • Draw Odds: +209
  • Over/Under: 2 (u-112)

Watford were a popular pick to be relegated over the summer but the Hornets opened the season nicely with a home win over Brighton, 2-0.

Burnley picked up a road point at Southampton in their opener, and the game ended 0-0 despite a number of scoring chances throughout the match.  Having played another Europa League match on Thursday, which went the full 120 minutes, they may be at a slight disadvantage.

Moneyline odds have come down slightly on Burnley over the past two days, but the draw line has been stagnant. All three moneylines are listed at +230 or lower.

Burnley frequently plays these types of tight matches with a low over/under of 2 goals, which fit a number of profitable Bet Labs systems.

The Bet: Draw +209

Huddersfield Town at Manchester City (8:30 a.m. ET, NBCSN)

  • Manchester City Odds: -1010
  • Huddersfield Odds: +3105
  • Draw Odds: +1134
  • Over/Under: 3.5 (o-106)

Manchester City (-1010) are the third-biggest favorites we’ve tracked over the past five seasons, and they’re also the owners of the three largest moneylines (-1300 vs. Huddersfield in May of 2018 and -1100 vs. Bournemouth in December of 2017).

They easily beat Bournemouth, 4-0, but were held to a scoreless draw against Huddersfield. It’s possible that Huddersfield could feed off that result just a few months ago, but that’s not very likely.

The goal line is listed at +2.5 (+128), so oddsmakers are forecasting a comfortable win by Manchester City. There’s been lopsided betting on the home moneyline and spread, but there isn’t any real value here.

The Bet: PASS

Manchester United at Brighton (11 a.m. ET, NBCSN)

  • Manchester United Odds: -113
  • Brighton Odds: +397
  • Draw Odds: +243
  • Over/Under: 2 (o-135)

Manchester United beat Leicester City 2-1 in the home opener, but did not look convincing. The looming misery of Jose Mourinho hasn’t seemed to help much, either.

Brighton lost 2-0 in their opener at Watford, but could quickly make amends by picking up points against Manchester United. The home side knows they can win this game and can afford to take chances, which sets up nicely for the over.

This match fits the mold of a system my colleague John Ewing recently posted based on midrange home underdogs, and this looks to be another good spot.

The Bet: Over 2 (-135)

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Liverpool at Crystal Palace (Monday 3 p.m. ET, NBCSN)

  • Liverpool Odds: -212
  • Crystal Palace Odds: +616
  • Draw Odds: +392
  • Over/Under: 3 (o-106)

Liverpool could make a run at Manchester City for the Premier League title but they can’t overlook early season opponents such as Crystal Palace, especially on the road. Recent meetings with the Eagles haven’t been easy, either, and we should be in store for an entertaining match.

Home underdogs in the Premier League have been profitable in these tricky Monday night games over the past five years. Despite winning just 13-of-42 games outright, the dogs have earned +26.2 units on the moneyline. Watford (+595 vs. Chelsea) and Swansea (+1078 vs. Liverpool) were the big upsets last season.

Liverpool have received nearly 90% of tickets among public bettors, the most lopsided action of the weekend. I’ve been keen on Crystal Palace since the summer and this is a perfect contrarian spot to take a chance on a +600 upset.

The Bet: Crystal Palace (+600)

Value Plays

  • Watford-Burnley Draw (+209)
  • Brighton-Man Utd Over 2 (-135)
  • Crystal Palace (+600) vs. Liverpool