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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Manchester City vs. Liverpool (Sunday, Nov. 8)

Credit:

Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool standouts Diogo Jota and Sadio Mane.

  • Premier League juggernauts Manchester City and Liverpool go at it in a crucial match at Etihad Stadium.
  • The Cityzens enter the match as the home favorite over the defending league champions.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and tells us why he likes the Reds to hold their own.

Manchester City vs. Liverpool Odds

Manchester City Odds -121 [BET NOW]
Liverpool Odds +285 [BET NOW]
Draw +320 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-143) [BET NOW]
Time 11:30 a.m. ET
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Things should be amped up Sunday at Etihad Stadium when Manchester City hosts Liverpool in a battle of Premier League powerhouse clubs.

These teams have combined to win the last three league titles in England’s top flight, with the Reds entering the match as the reigning champion. The Cityzens secured back-to-back crowns prior to their rivals’ championship.

Liverpool has gotten off to another fast start in league play, sitting in second place on 16 points. A win or draw in this fixture would move the Reds to the top of the table, moving past the upstart Southampton squad that is currently in that position.

On the other side, Manchester City has not been its usual self for various reasons but has been good enough to position itself in 10th place on 11 points.

With that said, let’s take a look at this high-profile affair and what’s on deck.

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Manchester City

The Cityzens have been in their best form of the season up to this point, going unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions. Three of those fixtures were shutout wins.

Manchester City has found success in Champions League play, rolling along in Group C play. The club picked up its last victory in the European competition Tuesday, getting goals from Ferran Torres, Gabriel Jesus and João Cancelo in its 3-0 triumph against Greek side Olympiacos.

This is a huge fixture for the Cityzens heading into the FIFA international break, knowing they can chip away at the gap created by Southampton and Liverpool at the top of the table.

The Cityzens have recorded some solid offensive numbers thus far, currently sitting on 8.4 expected goals and 7.1 expected goals against in league play. Those numbers result in a +1.3 xGDiff and +0.22 xGDiff/90 minutes.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Liverpool

Pundits thought things might go south for the reigning EPL champion after star defender Virgil van Dijk went down with a season-ending injury. However, the Reds silenced the critics and have reeled off five consecutive wins in his absence.

Most recently, Liverpool delivered a 5-0 trashing to Atalanta midweek in Champions League play, which has to have it roaring with confidence. Portuguese international Diogo Jota erupted with a hat trick in the win.

When comparing statistical data, Liverpool obliterates Manchester City in all but one similar category. The Reds boast a blistering 17.2 expected goals, but have been poor defensively, with 9.9 expected goals against this season.

Overall, the advanced metrics still generate an impressive +7.2 xGDiff and +1.03 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Liverpool’s xG, xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes lead all clubs on the 20-team table.

Betting Analysis

This match is the definition of a toss-up situation.

That said, I will back Liverpool giving a half-goal at a decent price with the belief a draw is the worst-case scenario. These teams are pretty much a wash, so I’m happy to back the road dog with better value.

You also have to like the Reds’ chances when you add in the managerial factor, with Jürgen Klopp notching more wins (nine) against Pep Guardiola than another gaffer.

I will also play the total to go over the alternative number of three goals for these reasons:

  • Liverpool has scored at least two goals in nine consecutive league matches, with three or more goals being scored in nine of its last 10 league fixtures.
  • The total has reached at least three goals in 10 of Manchester City’s last 11 home matches against Liverpool across all competitions
  • The Cityzens and Reds haven’t been shut out in their last combined 10 games.

The bottom line is this will be an entertaining match. Enjoy.

Picks: Liverpool +0.5 (-112); Total Over 3 Goals (-155)

[Bet the Manchester City-Liverpool match at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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