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Premier League: Boxing Day Betting Market Analysis and Previews

Dec 24, 2018 12:57 PM EST
Credit:

Getty Images. Pictured: Watford players celebrating a goal

  • Happy Boxing Day! There are nine Premier League matches for Wednesday, December 26th including Leicester City-Manchester City (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold) and Watford-Chelsea (12:30 p.m. ET on NBC Sports).
  • Liverpool are currently four points ahead of Manchester City in the standings, but City remain slight -115 favorites to win the title.
  • After analyzing every match for Week 19, I've picked out four value plays to make.

The busy holiday schedule continues with nine EPL matches on Wednesday, December 26th, better known as “Boxing Day”. There’s also one match scheduled for Thursday between West Ham United and Southampton.

Last weekend saw the biggest EPL upset we’ve ever tracked as Crystal Palace beat Manchester City, 3-2, at Etihad Stadium. Palace closed +1870 on the moneyline and received just 10% of offshore wagers.

Over the next nine days, 13% of the Premier League season will be played. It’s a pivotal time to earn points at both the top and bottom of the standings.

2018-19 Season Trends

  • Road teams dominated Week 18, winning 7 of 10 matches for +31.43 units.
  • Crystal Palace’s (+1870) win over Man City was the biggest upset we’ve ever tracked, while Leicester City’s (+940) win at Chelsea was the second-largest this season.
  • Liverpool is still unbeaten in the league this season, winning 15 and drawing 3 matches. They’ve only conceded 7 goals, an average of 0.38 per game.

For Week 19, I’ve analyzed the betting market for every match and provided four value plays (21-41-1 season record, -8.34 units).

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)


Wednesday Betting Previews

Who’s ready for Fulham-Wolves at 7:30 a.m. ET?! It’s a crucial home match for Fulham who still sit at the bottom of the league table, but they did earn a road point at Newcastle last weekend. Wolves had their three-game winning streak halted vs. Liverpool, but no club has been able to solve the Reds yet this year, so it’s hardly a bad loss.