Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Burnley vs. Crystal Palace Betting Preview (Nov. 20)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Burnley vs. Crystal Palace Betting Preview (Nov. 20) article feature image
Credit:

Joe Prior/Visionhaus. Pictured: Wilfried Zaha.

Burnley vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Burnley Odds +170
Crystal Palace Odds +180
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+120 / -150)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Teams in solid form meet at Turf Moor on Saturday when Burnley welcomes Crystal Palace a crucial Premier League showdown.

Over their last six matches, the visiting Eagles are unbeaten with two wins and four draws, including back-to-back victories coming into the weekend over Manchester City and Wolves.

Meanwhile, the hosts only have the loss to the Cityzens over the same six-match span to go with a triumph over Brentford and a draw with Chelsea in their last two fixtures.

Burnley has won the last three in the EPL against Palace, but the Eagles will be flying high with the chance to secure another win.

Clarets Need to Find Goalscoring Form

While the recent string of results has been great, Burnley needs to continue that momentum if it looks to stay in the division as it enters the weekend in the relegation zone on just eight points.

One issue this campaign has been putting the ball in the back of the net, where Sean Dyche’s team ranks towards the bottom of the EPL in expected goals at 12.3 and shots per match (11.18), according to fbref.com.

The six goals in the last three matches were more than the Clarets had in their last 11 combined in the league (five goals) going back to last season.

Things look even worse defensively, with Burnley’s non-penalty xG against per match (18th) and shots surrendered per game (20th) both close to the bottom of the league.

Surprising Eagles Thriving Under Vieira

If you would have told any Palace fan that they would have been 10th in the table after 11 matches before the season, every single one of you would have laughed at you. Here we are, though, having been impressed by new manager Patrick Vieira so far this season.

The Eagles have a +1.9 xG difference so far this campaign, which is good for sixth in the EPL, and it’s their defensive metrics that really jump off the page.

Only Manchester City has a better expected goals against tally than Palace’s 11.4, and Vieira’s side also ranks highly in shots against per match (sixth) and big scoring chances against (third) overall.

Star winger Wilfried Zaha is once again off to a great start to the campaign with four goals, but the biggest surprise has been the growth of English midfielder Conor Gallagher chipping in with four himself to go with two assists.

There are also talks that Eberechi Eze could make his return to the squad following his lengthy injury absence that spans back to last season.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Oddsmakers believe this could be a very close contest, with Burnley listed as a very slim favorite at +170 on the moneyline.

That said, I’m backing Crystal Palace in this fixture, though, by taking Vieira’s team on the Draw No Bet market at -110 for my best bet.

Although both clubs enter the game in good form, I think Burnley’s numbers can be a bit deceiving. Over the last five matches, the Clarets have a -1 xG difference, while the Eagles are at +2 during that span.

Those numbers for Vieira’s team came in matches with Leicester City, Arsenal, Manchester City and Wolves, while Burnley played Norwich City, Southampton and Brentford.

Whenever you play a Dyche team, set pieces are always going to be a very important part of the match, which doesn’t bode well for Palace’s league-worst seven goals allowed on set pieces this season.

The extra time to prepare for Burnley’s corners and free kicks over the international break should help the visitors, and I think they are good value to keep the positive run going.

Pick: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (-110)

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