Premier League Updated Odds, Pick, Prediction: Crystal Palace vs. Norwich City Betting Preview (Dec. 28)
George Wood/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Ayew
- Crystal Palace is now a much smaller favorite than it was one day ago for its Tuesday match against Norwich City, dropping from -165 on the three-way line to -115. That means Norwich has gone from +500 to +350 in a corresponding move.
- However, Nicholas Hennion is going against the line move, buying low on the Palace defense and fading Norwich on the road, which has been a profitable endeavor this season.
- Get his full Crystal Palace vs. Norwich City preview and pick below.
Updated Crystal Palace vs. Norwich Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||-115|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Having both been blown out in their respective Boxing Day fixtures, Norwich City and Crystal Palace look to get back on track with three points.
The former earmarked Sunday with a 5-0 home loss to Arsenal, while the latter suffered a 3-0 road defeat to Tottenham. Of note will be the fact Palace will play Tuesday’s match without talisman Wilfried Zaha, who picked up a red card in their defeat over the weekend.
This marks the first head-to-head meeting between these sides this season. However, in Norwich’s most recent Premier League campaign, they were winless against the Eagles (1D-1L) and have lost three of the last four.
A win for the hosts could see it move into the top-10, while three points for visiting Norwich could see the Canaries go level on points with 17th-placed Watford.
Crystal Palace Has Been Superb at Home
So far this season, the mystery with Crystal Palace has been their home vs. road record.
At home, manager Patrick Vieira’s side has played brilliantly. Through nine home fixtures, Palace has allowed the second-fewest expected goals against and possess the fifth-best expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Additionally, the Eagles have posted only one outright loss at Selhurst Park and have won seven of nine home fixtures on expected goals. Perhaps most impressively, Palace is due for some positive home defensive regression having allowed nine goals against on 6.2 expected.
On the offensive end, Palace has played well as of late. In three of their last five home fixtures, it has has posted above-average xG/90 totals, per fbref.com. It has also registered above-average shot-creating actions in four of the last six and above-average goal-creating actions in two straight.
However, despite that positive home record, Palace has only won three matches outright and has dropped four points from winning positions. And whereas it’s been fortunate on the defensive end, Palace is due for negative offensive regression. In their nine home fixtures, it’s scored 15 goals on 13 expected, again per fbref.com.
Norwich City Struggle on the Road
Norwich are, without question, the worst road team in the Premier League.
Through eight road matches, the Canaries have conceded the most expected goals and have registered the third-fewest expected goals amongst teams that have played eight or more road games.
Even though they’re in line for positive regression on both fronts (three road goals on 6.3 expected, 20 goals against on 17 expected), it has still won only a single road match on expected goals (at Newcastle) and has only scored in two road matches.
Moreover, Norwich has produced only 1.0+ expected goal in 10 of their last 27 road Premier League fixtures. On the flip-side, it’s allowed more than one expected goal in 21 of its last 27 EPL matches.
Finally, the underlying road metrics are concerning for the Canaries, as they’ve only managed at least one goal-creating action in two road fixtures. Additionally, despite an uptick in road xGA/90 under Dean Smith, it has allowed below-average shots on target metrics in two of their last three away from Carrow Road.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even though Palace is 2-2-1 in home matches against the league’s bottom 10 offenses, they’ve won all five of those fixtures on expected goals.
Additionally, this feels like a good time to buy low on the Palace defense, which has conceded five times on 2.4 expected in their last three home fixtures. Additionally, all three of those fixtures came against sides that rank ahead of Norwich in the xG/90 table, per fbref.com.
Plus, the only two sides that have managed 1.0+ xG at Selhurst Park – Leicester City and Everton – hold a substantial xG/90 difference over Norwich. That tells me Norwich will struggle to generate meaningful chances that would earn it points.
Finally, in five road fixtures against the Premier League’s 10 best offenses, Norwich has allowed no fewer than 1.7 expected goals and has allowed 2.0+ xGA in four of five.
That’s why I’m willing to ignore the Zaha absence and take a look at Palace. Ultimately, it has won six of the last seven on expected goals at home and has posted above-average goal-creating actions against in five of eight at home.
Given the struggles of the Norwich offense on the road, I rate Palace as a good bet to not only win the match, but to do so by multiple goals.
Pick: Crystal Palace -0.75 (-125)