Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Southampton Betting Preview (Nov. 20)
Stephen Pond/Getty Images. Pictured: Dean Smith.
Norwich City vs. Southampton Odds
|Norwich City Odds||+280|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-105 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Dean Smith makes his debut as Norwich City manager Saturday when Southampton makes the trip to Carrow Road in Premier League action.
The former Aston Villa manager will have his work cut out for him to keep the club in the English top flight, with the Canaries entering the weekend at the bottom of the table on just five points.
Meanwhile, the visiting Saints come into the fixture unbeaten in their last four, including shutout wins over Leeds, Watford and Villa.
Looking at the history between the sides, the Saints have only lost two of their last 15 meetings against Norwich in all competitions, but the host will be looking to impress its new manager.
Smith Faces Tough Task in Keeping Norwich Up
While Smith had a positive impact at his former club, his Villa team had much better talent and financial backing to work with compared to his new job.
This Norwich squad ranks dead last in the EPL in many offensive categories, including goals scored (five), expected goals (9.3), shots per match (10.09) and big chances created (three), according to fbref.com.
Things don’t look much better defensively, with Norwich giving up the most goals (26) and xG (21.3) in the division while ranking 19th in big chances surrendered and shots allowed per game.
The Canaries did pick up their first victory of the year against Brentford last time out, and they’ll need that to continue to stay in the English top flight.
Saints Entered Break in Strong Form
Southampton has started to pick up results over the last month, and the advanced metrics suggest this run could continue.
Ralph Hasenhüttl’s squad ranks in the top half of the league table in xG (15.6), shots per game (12.27) and big chances created (13). With only 10 goals scored and key attacking players returning from injury, the Saints should continue to see some positive regression.
The defensive metrics aren’t too bad either for Southampton, ranking around the middle of the league or better in expected goals allowed, shots allowed per 90 minutes and pressure success per match.
One thing to keep an eye on for this match is the status of club captain and key midfielder James Ward-Prowse, who had to pull out of the England squad this past week due to an illness.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Smith will open his Norwich job as the unsurprising underdog, with DraftKings slating Southampton as the +110 favorite on the moneyline.
I’m shifting my focus to the props market, though. My best bet for this match is that both teams won’t score at even money.
Although the Saints are in great form and the team I would back here, the new manager bounce that teams receive in the first game is a very real thing, which keeps me away from picking a side in this match.
If you look over the last 12 league games combined between the two teams, this bet would have cashed in eight of those matches. Both teams have failed to score in seven of 11 Norwich fixtures in the league this campaign, while the same can be said in six of 11 for Southampton.
The new Canaries manager will know how important getting results in matches like this at home are to survival in the EPL, and he’ll likely set his team up not to lose in his first match.
When you combine that with a solid defensive team in the Saints, I think this bet at even money is great value at Carrow Road.
Pick: Both Teams To Score — No (+100)