Spurs vs. Aston Villa Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Aston Villa in Premier League Matchup (Oct. 3)
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa standout Danny Ings, left, and his teammates celebrate a goal.
- Tottenham is favored over Aston Villa in Sunday’s Premier League action.
- Spurs have been sputtering the last few weeks, as its offense can't find a way forward. Meanwhile, Aston Villa is eighth in the table and fresh off shutouts of Manchester United and Everton.
- Get our Tottenham vs. Aston Villa betting pick and preview below.
Spurs vs. Aston Villa Odds
|Aston Villa Odds||+250|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+100 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Before the season, everyone would have pegged Tottenham to be higher in the table entering this match Sunday than its opponent Aston Villa, but that is not how the opening six games have played out.
Villa comes into the weekend in eighth and fresh off shutout victories over Manchester United and Everton, while Spurs have lost three on the bounce in lopsided affairs to sit in the bottom half of the table.
It’s been a dismal few weeks for the team from North London who could really use a positive result to stop the free fall, but the Villains are going to come into Tottenham Hotspur Stadium looking for another memorable win.
Regression Came for Spurs
Nuno Espírito Santo’s reign as new manager started off with a bang after defeating defending champions Manchester City on the opening day and securing back-to-back wins over Wolves and Watford, but the positivity stopped there.
Spurs have been outscored 9-1 in the three straight losses, including embarrassing losses in the North London Derby against rivals Arsenal (3-1) and West London foes Chelsea (3-0).
With all of the attacking talent, it’s been puzzling to see Tottenham struggle going forward as it is near the bottom of the league in goals (4), expected goals (4) and last in the Premier League in shots per 90 minutes (9.5), according to fbref.com.
The summer hangover seems to be haunting lead striker Harry Kane, who hasn’t scored in the league in four starts and only has four shots on target.
If not for Korean striker Son Heung-min’s three goals, there is no telling where Spurs would be right now, but they need to turn it around quickly if they want to qualify for Europe next season.
Aston Villa Not Struggling Without Grealish
After cashing in on star man Jack Grealish over the summer, most thought Villa would struggle to cope with his absence, but that has not been the case at all.
It has been a group effort to fill the void of Grealish, with seven different players finding their way on the scoresheet this season.
Summer signings Danny Ings, Emi Buendia and Leon Bailey have all made instant impacts this season with goals, which has helped cover the slow start for striker Ollie Watkins.
Dean Smith’s team was also solid away from home last season, securing more points and wins on the road last season compared to at home.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The oddsmakers are still respecting Spurs in this game, with the home team showing as +115 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings. I’m taking the team with better form, and I’m looking at a spread play for this match.
My best bet is to take Aston Villa on the Asian handicap of +0.25 at +105.
Beyond the current forms of both teams coming into the weekend, the Villains have been much more competitive in games this season, posting a -0.4 xG difference and winning the xG battle in three of six fixtures.
Tottenham holds a -3.5 xG difference for the season and only Norwich has a lower xG over the last five games.
With everything that went on in the summer between Kane staying or leaving and the arrival of a new manager, there has been a lot of distractions off the field that look to have caused issues on it.
I don’t hate the idea of paying a heavier price of -130 to play Villa at +0.5 on the spread, but it’s hard to turn down the opportunity of playing a plus price with the team on better form and more positivity on and off the field.
Pick: Aston Villa +0.25 (+105)