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Premier League Odds & Picks (Sunday July, 26): Leicester City vs. Manchester United

Premier League Odds & Picks (Sunday July, 26): Leicester City vs. Manchester United article feature image

Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Rashford

  • Leicester City and Manchester United meet in a pivotal Sunday Premier League matchup on Sunday.
  • Leicester enters today's match as +260 moneyline underdog while favorite Manchester United has seen its odds move to +105.
  • Brad Cunningham previews the matchup, including where he sees betting value.

Leicester City vs. Manchester United

Leicester City Odds +260 [BET NOW]
Manchester United Odds +105 [BET NOW]
Draw Odds +250 [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 11 a.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday morning and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Leicester City welcomes the Red Devils to the East Midlands in an elimination game for the last Champions League spot. Leicester needs the win to get in while Man United only needs a draw to get into the top-four.

Manchester United

Manchester United have dropped points here and there, but have looked strong when they have the right lineup starting. Since the restart, they are undefeated with five wins and three draws.

Depth has been a bit of an issue for the club over the last three to four games. When they’ve rested a few of their best players, the results have dipped: A loss vs. Chelsea in FA Cup, draws vs. Southampton and West Ham. Chelsea played well, and Man U didn’t have their best XI out there. The games against Southampton and West Ham were a bit strange, frankly.

Even though all Man United needs is a draw, I expect their stars to come to play. Their advanced metrics since the restart are quite impressive. A goal differential of +1.75 is a bit inflated, but +1.12 expected goal (xG) differential is still pretty eye opening. I think the numbers are legit, and Leicester will have trouble defending them for the full 90 minutes.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Leicester City

Leicester City’s form has been a concern for a while. You could say they were trending downward since Christmas time. Even if we only focus on the past month, the club has two wins, two draws and three losses.

Their losses against Bournemouth and Tottenham stick out to me. They had the lead against Bournemouth, and just collapsed. Kasper Schmeichel and Wilfred Ndidi — two of their most solid players — made mistakes that led to an equalizer. Then their best defender Caglar Soyuncu got an uncharacteristic red card. Really poor result against a bottom-tier team.

Tottenham looked far superior to Leicester last weekend. Their defense specifically looked very vulnerable. They were missing Soyuncu, who will be back tomorrow. However, they’re still missing their two starting fullbacks, who are both very talented players (Ben Chilwell and Ricardo Pereira).

Stats Since Restart Man United Leicester
Expected Goals 1.96 1.56
Goals 2.50 1.13
Expected Goals Allowed 0.84 1.13
Goals Allowed 0.75 1.38
Goal Differential +1.75 -0.25
Expected Goal Differential +1.12 +0.43

The other key will be the health of James Maddison. He hasn’t played the last few games, and his status is uncertain. If he can’t go, I just don’t see Leicester winning this game. He’s that important. Their goal differential of -0.25/game is a bit unfortunate relative to their +0.43 xG differential.

Given the form and all of the injuries Leicester is dealing with, I have to go with Man United at +120 here. The result may be a draw, but +120 is just too good to pass up for me. I also lean over 2.5, as Leicester will need goals to get the result they need.

Pick: Man United +120

[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, CO, IN and WV only.]

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