Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Arsenal in Low-Scoring EPL Match Against Watford
Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Alexandre Lacazette
Arsenal vs. Watford Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -130)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Kicking off the Sunday slate in the Premier League, Arsenal makes the quick trip to Watford for a feisty London Derby.
The Gunners came into the weekend with seven wins out of nine in the league and just two points off of Manchester United in fourth.
Meanwhile, the Hornets are desperate for points as they find themselves in the relegation zone in 18th.
Watford has earned just seven points from 45 available against Arsenal in the EPL over the years, and I don’t see that changing here.
Arsenal Has Been Excellent Recently
Arsenal has been one of the top teams in the English top-flight over the last couple of months, picking up 22 out of a possible 27 over the last nine games.
The only loss over that stretch came at home to the league leaders Manchester City, which is a match that was swayed by a late penalty call.
During this run, the Gunners have posted a +11.2 expected goals difference, according to fbref.com, and outscored their opponents 26-5.
With three games in hand over the teams above them, manager Mikel Arteta’s side is in a great spot to claim the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot for next season.
Watford Defense Improved, But at Expense of Offense
When Roy Hodgson was hired as manager, he made it a point of emphasis to improve the club defensively, and he has succeeded in that.
The Hornets have claimed three clean sheets in his six games in charge, which is something they hadn’t done in their first 20 league games this season.
However, the improvements defensively have also come with a negative impact to the attacking numbers, where Watford has only scored two goals and failed to score in four matches.
Hodgson’s team did pick up a big point at Old Trafford last weekend, and he’d likely be happy with another point against the Gunners.
Betting Analysis & Pick
BetMGM has Arsenal listed as the -175 favorite on the moneyline, while the total is set at 2.5 goals.
I only see one winner in this spot, but there’s a better play on the board to back the Gunners.
My best bet is the Single Game Parlay of Arsenal to win and Under 3.5 Combined Goals Scored at +115.
In the long run of great form that I laid out earlier for the Gunners, only two of the nine during the span finished over 3.5 goals, which came against teams that play to high-scoring matches in Leeds United and Norwich City.
Meanwhile, only one out of the six games has finished with more than 3.5 goals since Hodgson became manager for Watford. The one fixture came in a game against Crystal Palace that ended with a combined 1.9 expected goals between the two sides.
The Hornets have also posted a -3.4 expected goals difference in his six games in charge, which doesn’t bode well coming up against one of the in-form teams in all of Europe.
I also don’t hate the Arsenal to Win to Nil bet at +140, especially with all the issues Watford has creating scoring chances.
However, I like the extra coverage in case Watford is able to find the back of the net with the same game parlay. If you want a little more security, you can take the same bet with the total under 4.5 for a -120 payout.
There are a few ways to play this London Derby, and they all point to a low-scoring win for the Gunners.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Arsenal ML & Total Under 3.5 Goals (+115)
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