Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Arsenal, Wolves Find Goals in EPL Showdown? (Feb. 24)
Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Mikel Arteta of Arsenal.
- Arsenal welcomes Wolves to Emirates Stadium for Thursday's Premier League showdown.
- Both clubs have been playing well of late in their push toward next season's European competitions.
- Nick Hennion breaks down the meeting below and delivers his favorite prop bet ahead of the meeting.
Arsenal vs. Wolves Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+120 / -145)|
|Day | Time||Thursday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
European contenders Wolves travel to Emirates Stadium on Thursday to battle Arsenal, who hold the crucial sixth-spot in the Premier League table.
This meeting represents the second head-to-head in the last two weeks between these sides. In the reverse fixture at Molineux Stadium, the visiting Gunners claimed a 1-0 victory despite having a man sent off late.
However, this is simultaneously an Arsenal side that has struggled at home against Wolverhampton. In their last three head-to-head meetings at the Emirates, the Gunners are winless with two draws and one defeat.
Arsenal Riding Good Run of Form
Despite its poor home form against Wolves, Arsenal arrives at this fixture playing well of late.
Manager Mikel Arteta has seen his side avoid defeat in three consecutive fixtures, while winning all three on expected goals. Even though two of those matches have come against current bottom-seven sides, Arsenal’s attack has played well with 1.67 xG per 90 minutes in those three fixtures.
Plus, if you evaluate the Champions League chasers in its last eight fixtures, bettors will see Arsenal’s record improve. In those eight matches since December 11, the Gunners are 6-1-1 (W-L-D), with half of those victories coming against top-half opposition.
Further, this is an Arsenal side that has been playing quite well at the Emirates. Even though its defense could soon see some negative regression, Arsenal owns the fourth-best home xGDiff in the league, per fbref.com. Plus, it has accumulated the third-most home points, while posting only two outright defeats against Manchester City and Chelsea.
Arsenal’s home success has largely come through its offensive performances. In eight home wins, the Gunners’ attack is creating north of two xG per 90 minutes, while creating only 0.98 xG/90 in its four remaining home fixtures.
The Gunners defense has also turned in some solid home performances of late. In its last five games, three of which came against top-half sides, it has only conceded more than 0.6 xG against once — against Manchester City.
Wolves Delivering Mixed Results on Road
The tricky part of evaluating Wolves is that they have simultaneously played very well and poorly away from home.
Credit manager Bruno Lage’s side in that’s tied for fifth in road goal differential and total road points accumulated. However, a good chunk of that is undeserved. As it stands, Wolves own a -5.4 road xGDiff, good for 11th best in the English top flight.
Wolves have lost 75 percent of its road fixtures on xG, conceding 1.4 xGA per 90 minutes. That’s north of its 1.33 xGA/90 minutes season-long average. In fact, Wolves limited their opponents to under 0.5 xG only once on the road this season.
That said, Wolverhampton arrives in decent form. In its last eight fixtures, it is 6-1-1 (W-L-D) with four wins against top-half sides. However, there could be regression coming based on those fixtures, too, as Wolves posted a +7 goal differential on a -2.3 xGDiff in those eight contests.
Plus, its attack has been wildly inconsistent as of late. Lage’s side is creating only 0.97 xG/90 minutes in those eight matches and has a median output of 0.85 xG/90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
Lastly, only two times has the Wolves defense allowed less than one xG during that eight-match run.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Maybe I’m getting in my own head, but it’s Arsenal or nothing for me when it comes to the side.
Given all of Wolves’ road issues, one would think those metrics would catch up with them. Combine that with Arsenal’s home record and I expect there’s a game script out there that sees the host dominate.
However, given I have a healthy level of concern this game finishes level, I’m choosing to look to the prop market instead. This is one of the few occasions you’ll see both teams to score at plus money, but there’s a case to be made.
For as bad as a BTTS side as Wolves is, the “Yes” bet has cashed in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings between these clubs. Plus, each team has produced at least one xG in four of the last five matchups.
Wolverhampton should definitely concede to an Arsenal side that has only been held goalless twice at home this season, but its attack is starting to get fully healthy and I think you can count on them to get on the board as well.
Given I’d price this market closer to -105, I’m happy to back Both Teams To Score at +105 odds and will make it my top pick.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (+105)
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