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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal EPL Betting Preview (April 4)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal EPL Betting Preview (April 4) article feature image
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Tim Keeton/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal standout Alexandre Lacazette.

Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal Odds

Crystal Palace Odds +310
Arsenal Odds -110
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+105 / -145)
Day | Time Monday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Arsenal looks to cushion its top-four standing Monday when it travels to Selhurst Park to face mid-table side Crystal Palace in Premier League action.

Prior to the international break, the results went strongly in favor of the Gunners, who are 6-1-0 (W-L-D) in their last seven contests. The same can be said for Crystal Palace, which is unbeaten in its last four EPL fixtures and has only dropped all three points once in its last seven outings.

In the reverse fixture at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal rescued a point in stoppage time via a thrilling 2-2 draw. That represents the fifth consecutive match between these sides in which Arsenal has avoided defeat.

Crystal Palace Flexing Muscles at Selhurst Park

If we’ve said it once, I might as well say it again. Crystal Palace is unbelievably good at home.

Manager Patrick Vieira’s side owns a +7.0 expected goal differential at Selhurst Park, per fbref.com, which is the best mark among sides outside the current top six in the table. On the flip side, the Eagles hold a -6.3 xGDiff away from home this season.

Potentially even better? Bad luck has fallen Palace’s way on home soil and it could see some positive regression soon. The Eagles hold a +5 goal differential on that +7 xGDiff, winning the xG battle in three of their four home losses this campaign.

Further, Viera’s squad has played admirably against the league’s best clubs. In six home matches against the top-six clubs and West Ham United, Crystal Palace has a +1.8 xGDiff on a -1 actual goal differential, according to fbref.com.

If there’s a worry with Palace based on those fixtures, it’s that its defense hasn’t held up. Four foes in a row in that categorization have created at least one xG, while two of the last three have created more than 1.5 xG overall.

That said, if you remove Palace’s home games against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea, its xGDiff rises to +8.1 on a +8 actual goal differential. Plus, among those 12 contests, the Eagles have lost outright only twice.

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Arsenal Making Noise in Dominant Run

The Gunners have produced an incredibly impressive run since losing to Manchester City on the first day of 2022.

In eight fixtures, manager Mikel Arteta’s side has only dropped points in two games and has seen its offense improve exponentially. Only one of those eight teams (Liverpool) has held Arsenal to less than one xG, while only two teams have held Arsenal to fewer than 1.4 xG, per fbref.com.

Furthermore, the Arsenal offense has traveled very well and posted good results away from the Emirates. The Gunners have won all three road fixtures in 2022, averaging north of 1.5 xG per 90 minutes in the process.

The Arsenal road defense has simultaneously improved, too, as only one of those three opponents created more than one xG, per fbref.com.

That said, Arsenal has come up lucky away from home this season. Entering this fixture, it owns a +1 road goal differential, which is good for seventh-best in the English top flight. However, its road xGDiff arrives at -3.3, which is the second-largest discrepancy among sides sitting fourth through 10th place in the road xGDiff standings.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

I’ll start with this point: Arsenal is overvalued. Given Palace’s record against quality opposition at home, I have no interest in laying -110 with the Gunners. At the same time, though, I worry about the Eagles as “trendy underdogs.”

I lean toward under 2.5 goals, but -145 is too rich for my blood. So, I’m looking to the prop market instead, specifically the Both Teams To Score (Yes) wager.

Historically, that side of BTTS has proved quite profitable in these head-to-head meetings. It has cashed in four consecutive games at Selhurst Park and eight of the last nine matches overall. Plus, both teams have created at least one xG in four of the last five contests.

Off a lengthy break, I believe this is a good time to sell high on the Arsenal defense. Only three sides — Man City, Liverpool and Brentford — have held Palace goalless at home this season, so I expect it will do no worse than a tally.

Combine that with the fact Palace is showing problematic tendencies at the back and I believe Arsenal matches its output as well.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-110)

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