Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview, Best Bets: Betting Value Sitting With Total in Newcastle vs. Leicester City EPL Clash
Newcastle United/Newcastle United via Getty Images. Pictured: Newcastle United players Miguel Almirón, left, and Javier Manquillo.
- Newcastle United hosts Leicester City in Sunday’s Premier League matchup.
- The Magpies have been solid at home under manager Eddie Howe, but analyst Brett Pund is targeting the total.
- Check out below which side of the number he’s landed for his top pick.
Newcastle vs. Leicester Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-115 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9:15 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Newcastle United kicks off the Premier League slate Sunday when it welcomes Leicester City to St. James’ Park.
The Magpies have been terrific at home in recent months, which has helped them secure a 10-point gap between themselves and the relegation zone coming into the weekend.
Meanwhile, the Foxes are enjoying a great run in the Europa Conference League. However, this has hurt their play in the EPL this season.
These clubs have been playing some lower-event matches recently and I think that should carry over into this fixture.
Manager Howe Keeping Newcastle Afloat
When Eddie Howe was hired as manager, he was under heavy pressure to satisfy his wealthy owners by keeping the club in the English top flight.
Howe has just about guided the Magpies to safety, but he will want to end the season well to keep the momentum going into the next campaign..
One of the primary reasons has been the play at home, where Newcastle has picked up 19 out of a possible 30 points since he joined the club. In fact, the lone loss came to Manchester City back in December.
A key player has been goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka, who ranks fourth in the league in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed (+2.9), according to fbref.com.
Leicester Hoping to Maintain Solid Form
Leicester also enters the game on great form, winning four out of its last six in the league to go along with making a great European cup semifinal run.
However, the advanced metrics don’t paint as great of a picture. Over that same stretch of fixtures, the Foxes have posted a -3.7 xGDiff overall.
Meanwhile, Jamie Vardy, the club’s leading scorer, has only played two games this calendar year, is still out injured from this match.
Due to the deep cup run, manager Brendan Rodgers has been heavily rotating in the EPL to keep his players fresh, which is likely to continue here.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Oddsmakers at FanDuel is expecting Newcastle to continue to play well at home, making the club the +115 moneyline favorite.
I can’t back either of these sides at these prices. However, I do see great value in the total. That said, my best bet is to back total staying under 2.5 goals at -112 odds.
If you start first with the attacks, Leicester has averaged just 0.84 expected goals per 90 minutes over its last five matches, which is still better than Newcastle’s average of 0.78 xG per game over the same period.
This is also the same club that has seen this same bet cash in five of the last seven league games at St. James’ Park. Meanwhile, the total has fallen under this number in four of the last six matches involving the Foxes.
Another key stat that I like to look at when betting totals is the average combined expected goals in previous matches. In the last five fixtures, the average combined xG in Leicester games has been 2.44, while the number drops to two over the same stretch of matches involving Newcastle.
Once you add in the fact Vardy will miss this match against a team with a top-performing goalkeeper, all of the signs point to a low-scoring meeting.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-112)
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