Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Tottenham vs. Everton Betting Preview (March 7)
Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham star Harry Kane.
Spurs vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-135 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Monday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Closing the Premier League action for the latest set of fixtures, Tottenham hosts Everton on Monday in a vital match for both teams.
Spurs will be looking to keep pace with the teams in front of them in the race for the fourth and final Champions League qualification place for next season.
For the Toffees, they only have one win in their last six EPL games and have fallen to 17th place in the table. They now sit just one point above the relegation zone.
This fixture has been dominated by Spurs over the years, and I think this is a good spot for this trend to continue.
Spurs Offense Finds Life Under Conte
The big resurgence under manager Antonio Conte has come in the attacking numbers for Spurs, where his side ranks in the top three in the league in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes (1.52) and big scoring chances created (39), according to fbref.com.
However, Tottenham has stumbled recently after the initial boost of his hire, losing four of the last six games in the English top flight and getting dumped out of the FA Cup in a midweek loss to EFL Championship side Middlesbrough.
Even with the poor run, Spurs have still averaged 1.43 xG per match during this stretch, which is still impressive.
These are the types of games at home that Tottenham has to win if it plans to be playing in an European competition next season.
Lampard, Everton Struggling This Season
It has been a difficult start to life as manager at Everton for England legend Frank Lampard, losing three of four league games to go along with two wins in FA Cup competition.
Over the four matches, the Toffees have held a -2.6 expected goals difference and been outscored by three goals.
It is too small of a sample size to jump to too many conclusions on Lampard’s reign, but the most important thing is getting his stars back healthy.
Everton has had to play through large chunks of the season without key players Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Abdoulaye Doucouré and Yerry Mina. The Toffees need to get everyone back and firing on all cylinders to avoid the drop.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When we look at the odds at BetMGM, Spurs are rightly listed as the favorite at -185 on the moneyline, while the total is posted at 2.5 goals.
I can only back Tottenham in a game that I do see a good chance for goals, which leads me to the best value on the board. That said, my best bet is a Single Game Parlay featuring Spurs on the moneyline paired with the total clearing a combined 1.5 goals at -120 odds.
Of the 15 EPL games since Conte became manager, 12 of them finished with multiple goals. The same can be said during Lampard’s short time at Everton, with five of his six matches in charge across all competitions finishing over the total of 1.5 goals.
I also think you could bet the total surpassing 2.5 goals for a decent play. If you look at how the Toffees’ away matches, seven of 12 (58%) in league play have finished with at least three goals.
Meanwhile, the same bet has cashed in 67 percent of the home league games for Spurs, which includes five of the last seven contests.
All of Tottenham’s attention can be on pushing for European qualification next season, so I think the club continues to take care of these lesser teams in comfortable fashion.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Spurs ML & Total Over 1.5 Goals (-120)