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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Manchester United vs. Tottenham EPL Betting Preview (March 12)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Manchester United vs. Tottenham EPL Betting Preview (March 12) article feature image
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Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham star Harry Kane.

  • Manchester United has become a slightly bigger favorite over Tottenham for Saturday's Premier League headliner, moving from +135 to +130 over the last day.
  • United has taken advantage of an easy schedule during its hot run, and are a bit overvalued in this spot.
  • Get Brett Pund's Man United vs. Spurs betting pick and preview below.

Man United vs. Spurs Odds

Man United Odds +130
Spurs Odds +195
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +100)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM as on Saturday morning. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

In Premier League weekend headliner, Manchester United hosts Tottenham on Saturday in a pivotal match between teams fighting for Champions League qualification next season.

The Red Devils enter the game sitting in fifth place on 47 points and a point off Arsenal in the fourth position. Meanwhile, Spurs can jump them with a victory, as the side is two points back in seventh place.

If you look at the recent history of the fixture, the London club has won two of its last three EPL games at Old Trafford, which is as many wins as it picked up in the first 26 tries.

It’s very difficult to trust either of these teams, but I do think there’s a clear side to back in this meeting.

Man United Humbled in Rout Against Man City

Before the humiliating loss last weekend to its rival, United had been one of the most consistent teams in the English top flight the last couple of months.

The Red Devils held an unbeaten run of eight games coming into last weekend, posting a +7.7 expected goals difference over that span, according to fbref.com. However, United had to settle for draws against teams in the bottom half of the table in Aston Villa, Burnley and Watford during that stretch.

On the season, the Manchester giant ranks in the top five in xG per 90 minutes (1.56), shots per match (14.18) and big scoring chances created (37) overall.

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Spurs Seeking Consistency Ahead of Clash

Which Spurs team shows up in this game: the one that beat Manchester City, plus dominated Everton and Leeds United or the side that lost to Burnley, Wolverhampton and Southampton?

Manager Antonio Conte’s team has been very up and down lately, but the attacking play has been the most consistent trait of the club.

Over their last six league games, Spurs have averaged 1.83 expected goals per game and 2.33 goals per match on 14 total goals.

This is the same EPL club that ranks fifth in non-penalty xG allowed per 90 minutes (1.17) and fewest big scoring chances surrendered (29) this season.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Model Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

When we look at the odds at BetMGM, the home team is listed as the +135 moneyline favorite to go with a total of 2.5 goals.

However, there’s no way I could back United in this game, which leaves me with the decision as to how I want to get behind Spurs.

That said, my best bet is to take Tottenham on the Draw No Bet line at +100 odds, which is more of a fade of the host in this spot. If your book offers Spurs at +0.25 or +0.5 on the spread line via the Asian Handicap, I like those options as well at a similar price or better.

I wrote earlier about United’s great run of form over the last couple of months, but when you look into that stretch, the team took advantage of an easy schedule. During that unbeaten streak, only two of the eight teams are currently in the top half of the table.

Meanwhile, manager Ralf Rangnick’s side has failed to keep a clean sheet in nine of their last 12 EPL games, which doesn’t bode well against a great attacking squad in Spurs.

This is also a bad scheduling spot for the Red Devils, as they will be looking forward to their Champions League Round of 16 match on Tuesday’s card.

At the very least, I don’t envision a game where Tottenham doesn’t find a goal, especially with strikers Harry Kane and Son Heung-min on form.

Conte has transformed this Spurs team, so I’m expecting them to get a positive result at Old Trafford.

Pick: Spurs — Draw No Bet (+100)

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