Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Arsenal vs. Leicester City (Tuesday, July 7)


Andrew Kearns – CameraSport/Getty Images. Pictured: Alexandre Lacazette

Leicester City at Arsenal Odds, Picks

Leicester City odds +200 [BET NOW]
Arsenal odds +138 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +240 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-114/-109)
Time Tuesday at 3:15 p.m. ET

Odds as of Tuesday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

A suddenly in-form Arsenal hosts Leicester City in Tuesday’s featured Premier League match.

The Gunners are currently six points off Manchester United for fifth place in the table and can’t afford to leave any results on the table if they want a shot at European Football in 2020-21.

Leicester City have a three-point cushion over Man United and a one-point lead over Chelsea in the hunt for Champions League. A loss at the Emirates could prove fatal in the Foxes’ chase for a top-four finish.


The Gunners have won three matches on the spin and didn’t concede a single goal along the way. Arsenal have a +3.06 expected goal (xG) differential in those three games, so they’ve been impressive, but not as dominant as their +8 goal differential implies.

Even with their recent uptick in form, Arsenal has struggled to beat the top four teams in the table. Arsenal have picked up just one point and lose the xG battle, 13.58 to 4.44 in six matches versus the Liverpool, Man City, Leicester City and Chelsea.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Gunners have been on fire at the Emirates as of late, winning four straight and outscoring their opponents, 12-2, in the process. However, all four of those matches came against teams in the bottom half of the table.

In fact, Arsenal’s underlying metrics at home are a tad worrying. The Gunners have only a +0.03 expected goal differential at home this season, which ranks 13th in the Premier League.

As an Arsenal fan I’ve seen this story a thousand times. They a win a few games against the non-elite teams in Premier League and make you believe it’s for real, only to curb stomp your hopes in the next match.

I think this is a perfect opportunity to fade the Gunners.


The Foxes finally found their footing, grabbing their first win since the restart against Crystal Palace on Saturday. The pressure is now cranked up to the max for Leicester, who are looking at maintaining their position in the top four.

If they are to hold on, they’ll have to overcome their recent bad run of form away from the King Power Stadium. The Foxes have taken only two points from their last five matches on the road, but they’ve been a tad unlucky as Leicester have won the expected goals battle, 7.18 to 6.36, in those matches.

Even with their recent road woes, Leicester have been solid away from the King Power Stadium this season. Based on expected goals, Leicester ranks fourth in Premier League, with a +8.09 xG differential and an average of 1.77 xG scored per match on the road.


Arsenal’s recent uptick in form has naturally made them the betting favorite in the match. However, based on my model, I think the wrong team is favored:

  • Arsenal projected odds: +210 (32.31% win probability)
  • Leicester projected odds: +133 (42.98%)
  • Draw projected odds: +305 (24.71%)
  • Arsenal projected xG: 1.33
  • Leicester projected xG: 1.55

Based on those numbers, I am going to back the Foxes to get at least a draw from this match.

Pick: Draw No Bet: Leicester City +118

Bet Now at DraftKings

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.
How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories