Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Arsenal vs. Leicester City (Tuesday, July 7)

Leicester City at Arsenal Odds, Picks

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A suddenly in-form Arsenal hosts Leicester City in Tuesday's featured Premier League match.

The Gunners are currently six points off Manchester United for fifth place in the table and can't afford to leave any results on the table if they want a shot at European Football in 2020-21.

Leicester City have a three-point cushion over Man United and a one-point lead over Chelsea in the hunt for Champions League. A loss at the Emirates could prove fatal in the Foxes' chase for a top-four finish.

Arsenal

The Gunners have won three matches on the spin and didn't concede a single goal along the way. Arsenal have a +3.06 expected goal (xG) differential in those three games, so they've been impressive, but not as dominant as their +8 goal differential implies.

Even with their recent uptick in form, Arsenal has struggled to beat the top four teams in the table. Arsenal have picked up just one point and lose the xG battle, 13.58 to 4.44 in six matches versus the Liverpool, Man City, Leicester City and Chelsea.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Gunners have been on fire at the Emirates as of late, winning four straight and outscoring their opponents, 12-2, in the process. However, all four of those matches came against teams in the bottom half of the table.

In fact, Arsenal's underlying metrics at home are a tad worrying. The Gunners have only a +0.03 expected goal differential at home this season, which ranks 13th in the Premier League.

As an Arsenal fan I've seen this story a thousand times. They a win a few games against the non-elite teams in Premier League and make you believe it's for real, only to curb stomp your hopes in the next match.

I think this is a perfect opportunity to fade the Gunners.

Leicester

The Foxes finally found their footing, grabbing their first win since the restart against Crystal Palace on Saturday. The pressure is now cranked up to the max for Leicester, who are looking at maintaining their position in the top four.

If they are to hold on, they'll have to overcome their recent bad run of form away from the King Power Stadium. The Foxes have taken only two points from their last five matches on the road, but they've been a tad unlucky as Leicester have won the expected goals battle, 7.18 to 6.36, in those matches.

Even with their recent road woes, Leicester have been solid away from the King Power Stadium this season. Based on expected goals, Leicester ranks fourth in Premier League, with a +8.09 xG differential and an average of 1.77 xG scored per match on the road.

Analysis

Arsenal's recent uptick in form has naturally made them the betting favorite in the match. However, based on my model, I think the wrong team is favored:

• Arsenal projected odds: +210 (32.31% win probability)
• Leicester projected odds: +133 (42.98%)
• Draw projected odds: +305 (24.71%)
• Arsenal projected xG: 1.33
• Leicester projected xG: 1.55

Based on those numbers, I am going to back the Foxes to get at least a draw from this match.