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Thursday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions, Best Bets: Back Aston Villa to Deliver Burnley Huge Setback

Thursday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions, Best Bets: Back Aston Villa to Deliver Burnley Huge Setback article feature image
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Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa standout Ollie Watkins.

  • Aston Villa hosts Burnley in Thursday's Premier League action.
  • The Clarets, who are underdogs ahead of this meeting, are trying to avoid being relegated to the Championship.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the matchup below and details why he's backing Aston Villa to deliver a crushing blow to Burnley at Villa Park.

Aston Villa vs. Burnley Odds

Aston Villa Odds +110
Burnley Odds +260
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -120)
Day | Time Thursday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Thursday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

It’s do-or-die time for Burnley, which looks to climb out of the Premier League relegation zone and into safety in Thursday’s showdown with Aston Villa as the season winds to a close.

The Clarets will come up against the Villans, who get the full EPL experience this week, as it plays a relegation-battling side before it has a chance to kill Manchester City’s title hopes on the last day of the campaign.

So, will Aston Villa get past the first test of the week on home soil? Let’s take a look at this matchup and see where we can find betting value.

Aston Villa Looking To Play Villain Role

If you’re a team in the Premier League that isn’t competing for hardware or a place in a European competition, you might as well be doing what Aston Villa is heading into its final matches of the season.

The Lions have a chance to compete against a side fighting for survival before getting a shot at ruining another club’s title hopes. It doesn’t get any better than that, and it doesn’t hurt that Villa’s manager Steven Gerrard is a Liverpool legend. Philippe Coutinho and Danny Ings are also former Liverpool players.

However, as we look at the current task at hand, it’ll be Villa’s final home game and a chance to head into the weekend feeling confident. After dropping points in tough outings against Liverpool and Crystal Palace at Villa Park, the Villans will be even more desperate to send the season out on a high note.

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Burnley Desperate for Huge Road Win

The Clarets have done well to even put themselves into contention to remain in the English top flight, but now have two matches to avoid a devastating relegation to the Championship.

As it stands, Burnley sits in 18th place, putting the club a point behind Leeds United and two points behind Everton. The Clarets have a game in hand on the Peacocks, while Everton will square off with Crystal Palace on Thursday’s card.

Because this is a make-up match for a prior schedule conflict, this is actually the second time in a month the Clarets are facing the Villans, with the prior scoreline being a 3-1 home defeat.

In that fixture, Burnley recorded 1.31 xG, while conceding 1.81, but the second-to-worst finishing rate in the Premier League doomed the outfit.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As much as I want to get behind a team battling for EPL survival, Burnley just isn’t good enough to trust that a result will be had. 

Aston Villa is an average side with a 0.04 xG/game differential at home, while Burnley has posted a -0.9 clip away from Turf Moor this season. The Clarets have also been at an xG deficit in five of their last six away games — the lone one where that wasn’t the case was against Watford — and it’ll be an uphill battle to secure a point or more.

Look for Villa to earn a repeat of the teams’ prior result, sending its fans into the offseason on a high note.

Pick: Aston Villa ML (+110)

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