Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Leicester City vs. Everton EPL Betting Preview (May 8)
Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Everton standout Richarlison.
- Leicester City hosts Everton on Sunday in a crucial Premier League match.
- The Foxes don’t have much to play for in this contest, but the Toffees are needing a win and three points.
- Brett Pund breaks down the contest below and explains why he’s found betting value on the total.
Leicester vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 /-125)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
In a pivotal match at the bottom of the Premier League table, Everton travels to King Power Stadium on Sunday to face Leicester City its is search for points to strengthen its chances of avoiding relegation.
The Toffees are fresh off the surprising 1-0 victory over Chelsea last weekend. However, they still find themselves in 18th and two points off Leeds United and Burnley.
Meanwhile, the Foxes were knocked out of the Europa Conference League following the midweek loss to Serie A outfit Roma, which leaves them with nothing to play for in the remaining games of the season.
The two played each other just a few weeks ago to a 1-1 draw, and I’m expecting another low-scoring affair in this meeting.
Leicester City Looking for Motivation
There is no hiding it. Leicester had all of its eggs in the same basket trying to win the Europa Conference League. Now that the European run is over, you have to wonder how motivated they will be for their final five league games.
Manager Brendan Rodgers’ team has really struggled to cope with the fixture pile-up of both competitions and the league form has suffered.
Over the last eight EPL games, Leicester has posted a -5.5 xGDiff, according to fbref.com, and only picked up two wins against Brentford and Crystal Palace during this stretch.
With the team returning from the long trip to Italy on Thursday, you will want to keep an eye on the lineup that is announced as we are likely going to see some heavy rotation.
Everton Stuck in Brutal Relegation Fight
Following the big win last weekend, Everton now has the upper hand in the fight for survival, owning a game in hand over Burnley and Leeds.
However, manager Frank Lampard still has to guide his team to the points needed, with Watford, Brentford, Crystal Palace and Arsenal remaining on schedule following this match.
Coming into the weekend, the Peacocks were favored to be relegated at BetMGM at +130, followed by the Toffees (+175) and Clarets at +225 odds.
Everton will be looking to carry the momentum from the recent performances against Chelsea and Manchester United to propel them to safety.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When we look at the odds at BetMGM, Leicester is listed as the slight home favorite at +145 odds on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 goals.
This is a match of two teams that have been struggling offensively, and I expect that to continue again. So, my best bet is to play the total falling under 2.5 goals at -125 odds.
If you start first with the visitors, Everton has only averaged 0.92 xG per 90 minutes under Lampard, which drops to an average of 0.8 in his games in charge away from home.
The combined xG average in games that have involved the Toffees under Lampard has been 2.308 per game. Meanwhile, this same bet has cashed in eight of his 13 matches in charge, including the last four outings.
As for the hosts, the Foxes have only averaged 0.7 xG per match over the last nine in the EPL. The combined xG average of this same span of games has been 2.17 per fixture.
Also, the meeting a few weeks ago came at a time when Leicester didn’t have a midweek game in the European competition before or after the match, which meant the regular starters were able to play normal minutes. That won’t be the case this time around following the long trip from Italy on Thursday.
These teams haven’t produced many offensive fireworks in recent months, and I’m not expecting that to change here.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125)