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Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Tottenham vs. Leicester City EPL Betting Preview

Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Tottenham vs. Leicester City EPL Betting Preview article feature image
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James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham standout Harry Kane.

  • Tottenham hosts Leicester City in Sunday’s Premier League showdown.
  • Harry Kane and Spurs are hoping to continue their push toward a Champions League berth.
  • Nick Hennion breaks down the game below and details why he’s expecting Tottenham to win in a rout.

Spurs vs. Leicester City Odds

Spurs Odds -250
Leicester Odds +600
Draw +375
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +125) 
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Fresh off a draw in the midweek, Leicester City travels to Tottenham on Sunday in Premier League action.

Leicester haven’t fared well in the English top flight of late, as it has dropped points in three consecutive fixtures and only has one win in the month of April. Tottenham, prior to a loss to Brighton & Hove Albion and draw at Brentford during this two-match winless streak, put together four consecutive victories.

The reverse fixture at King Power Stadium saw Tottenham dominate from the start and a Steven Bergwijn brace in stoppage time saw it earn a 3-2 win.

Spurs Chasing Old Form in Stretch Run

Tottenham will hope this fixture allows it to rediscover its prime form as recent results haven’t been great.

Manager Antonio Conte’s side has lost three consecutive games on expected goals, creating less than 1.5 xG in all three matches. However, prior to that run,  Spurs was on fire as it created 2.44 xG per 90 minutes in the five previous matches, per fbref.com.

Plus, for as disappointing as the recent results have proved, the one consistent over the last month or two was the Tottenham defense. Only two of Spurs’ last eight opponents have created more than one xG, plus they’ve kept four clean sheets in those eight contests. Prior to that run, Conte’s side conceded at least one xG in five consecutive games and 1.74 xGA per 90 minutes.

However, the good news for Tottenham is that Leicester had little to show on either end in the reverse meeting. The Foxes created only 1.28 xG on 14 shots at home, while conceding 4.14 xG and eight big scoring chances on 27 total shots to the Tottenham attack, per fotmob.com.

Now, Tottenham gets another shot at a poor Leicester defense at home, where it has dominated. Brighton was the first side to keep Tottenham as less than one xG on home soil since Oct. 30, with Spurs generating 2.34 xG/90 in the 10 fixtures between the two clubs.

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Leicester City Offense Seeking Consistency

The theme of Leicester City’s attack of the last two months? Inconsistency.

Manager Brendan Rodgers’ side has created more than one xG only four times in its last nine fixtures and has more outputs less than 0.5 xG than it does over 1.5 xG, per fbref.com.

An area in which it has proved relatively consistent is in defense. Yet, that consistency hasn’t been for the good. Leicester has kept only one of its last nine opponents under one xG and has struggled mightily defensively away from home. Entering this game, Leicester has conceded the seventh-most road xGA and has only kept one of 16 foes under one xG away from home.

Further, Leicester’s road attacking efforts have fallen off a cliff of late. The Foxes have created only 2.7 xG in their last four road fixtures and have surpassed one xG only once in those four contests.

Lastly, Leicester has yet to prove capable of winning road matches against quality opposition, as two of its three road victories have come against bottom-five EPL sides.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Frankly, I’m shocked at the price on Tottenham, as I believe it’s capable of blowing Leicester out at home.

Not only is a good buy-low spot on Spurs, but Leicester will be playing on short rest. That’s not a good recipe for a defense that has conceded at least two xG in three road matches against current Champions League sides.

Further, Leicester hasn’t played well this season on short rest. In 19 fixtures played on four or fewer days rest, Leicester is 7-11-1 (W-L-D) according to xG and conceding 1.52 xG per 90 minutes in those matches.

For those reasons, I like backing Tottenham at an alternate number as I think its attack will have its way in this match.

Pick: Spurs -1.5 (+115)

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