Premier League Odds & Pick (Sunday, July 26): Burnley vs. Brighton

Credit:

Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Pope

Jul 26, 2020, 09:30 AM EDT
  • Sunday's Premier League matchup pits Burnley (+170 odds) against Brighton (+163).
  • There is much to play for, but there's still betting value.
  • Dillon Essma previews the action, including his pick in the matchup.

Premier League Odds: Burnley vs. Brighton

Burnley Odds +170  [Bet Now]
Brighton Odds +163  [Bet Now]
Draw Odds +235 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-125) [Bet Now]
Time Sunday, 11 a.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Burnley hosts Brighton to end their Premier League season Sunday. Neither team is fighting off relegation or challenging for European spots, so why preview the match? Sorry to be anti-climactic, but because Burnley continues to be offered at valuable numbers.

Brighton

Brighton are safely mid-table in the Premier League — it’s actually been a pretty solid season for them. Expectations were low, and I would say they outperformed them. They got a good result against Arsenal to start the return to play, and while I would say that was more due to Arsenal’s ineptitude in the game, Brighton got the three points.

Their play has fallen off since then — winning one, drawing three and losing three. The sole win was against Norwich, who is the bottom-dweller in the Premier League. It feels to me they are content to pack it in and call it a season.

The advanced metrics do not do them any favors, eight. Since the restart, their goal differential is -1.0 and their expected goal (xG) differential is -0.92/game. I expect more of the same on Sunday.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Burnley

Burnley is also safe in the mid-table. Some would also question their motivation, but those people don’t know Sean Dyche. He is an intense, hard-nosed, defensive-minded manager who always gets the best out of his players.

They rarely take games off.

Burnley have lost one game since January, with seven wins and seven draws. They are in superb form, and I think they will be too much for Brighton, whose players have packed their bags for vacation. Their games are typically 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0. Nick Pope could be the best goalkeeper other than Liverpool’s Alisson Becker in the Premier League. Pope has been absolutely superb this season. He has 15 clean sheets to lead the league along with Man City’s Ederson.

Burnley is also an under machine. If you exclude the City game, all seven matches have had two or fewer goals over the last month. They give up few good chances, and take advantage of set pieces and long balls over the top. Their advanced metrics would say they are outperforming. Goal differential is basically even, while xG differential is -0.55. However, I just don’t see Brighton breaking that trend.

Stats Brighton Burnley
Goal Differential -1.0 0.0
xG Differential -0.92 -0.55

Burnley vs. Brighton Pick

My favorite bet in the Premier League has been Burnley PK (under -140) and under 2.5 (-140). Not much has changed I see. I like the under 2.5 at -110 (and up to -130).

Goals on the last Sunday are usually more frequent, but I just don’t see Brighton taking advantage of the few good chances they will have. Burnley is in superb form, and they offer value at +128. I bet them at PK to push on a draw, but that has been steamed to -150. I would bet it if it was bet back down to -140 or lower. I expect them to win 1-0 or 2-0.

Picks: Under 2.5 (-105); Burnley ML +128

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