Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Jurgen Klopp (left) and Steven Gerrard.

  • Liverpool and Aston Villa go to battle in Saturday morning Premier League action.
  • Liverpool enters as big favorites, according to updated odds, but there may be value on the over/under.
  • Check out Avery Zimmerman's full betting preview for the game below.

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Odds

Liverpool Odds -370
Aston Villa Odds +900
Draw +550
Over/Under 3.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

There will be a historic atmosphere when Aston Villa travels to Anfield for a meeting with Liverpool due to the relationship between Villa’s manager and his former club.

Steven Gerrard took over at Villa about a month ago, but before his managerial career even kicked off he was one of the best players to ever grace the Merseyside club. In a 17-year career with Liverpool, Gerrard was a captain for a significant portion of that time, winning the Champions League and two FA Cups while scoring 186 goals in 710 appearances.

Only two players appeared in more games for the club, and there is no question that Gerrard is one of the biggest legends in Liverpool’s storied history.

This time, he’ll be hoping to take points away from the Reds, as he guides a rejuvenated Villa squad that has won three of its last four against Jurgen Klopp’s men.

Does Aston Villa have any chance of achieving that task?

Liverpool Entering Two-Horse Title Race

In this era of the Premier League, there are two teams that can turn into machines when clicking, those being Manchester City and Liverpool.

The two have won the previous four Premier League titles, and they’ve been the most dominant teams in that period by a wide margin. At the moment, it looks like we’re heading for a two-horse race featuring this pair of clubs once again.

Not only have Liverpool and City climbed their way back to the top of the league, but they’re also outperforming everyone in a significant manner when you look at advanced metrics.

City and Liverpool are averaging 2.41 and 2.38 xG/game in the league. No other team, including Chelsea, even eclipses 1.9 xG/game.

Defensively, the Cityzens and the Reds lead the league in xGA/game, showing it’s more likely than not that these are the teams that will be battling it out come springtime.

Since falling to West Ham on Nov. 7, Liverpool has turned it on. Klopp’s team won six out of six and posted a +15 goal differential in that period. Ruthless.

Villa Adopting New Culture Under Gerrard

Before Gerrard took over as manager, Villa had earned zero points in its previous five games. Over the first four under its new boss, Aston Villa has now secured nine of a possible 12, with the lone defeat coming to Manchester City.

At least as it stands, this is a new Aston Villa team. Maybe you can call it just a result of the “new manager bump,” but the defensive structure that Villa has established under Gerrard is much improved.

Aston Villa has conceded four goals on 3.54 xGA under Gerrard, approximately half of the eight goals and 7.06 xGA it conceded in Dean Smith’s final three matches.

While Villa was able to hold Man City to two goals on 1.02 xGA, going away to Anfield is an even more difficult task, and it’ll be a good litmus test for Gerrard’s squad.

Villa will be boosted by the returns of former Liverpool striker Danny Ings and Matt Targett to the squad from injury.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Backing any form of under when Liverpool is involved is always dangerous. Not only do the Reds score in a relentless manner, but they also have leaky moments in defense that can result in goals against the run of play.

Nonetheless, the under appears to be the most appealing play here at 3.5. LFC’s 2.35 xG per game at home and Villa’s 1.16 xG per game away nearly add up to the total, but recent form suggests Villa will be able to limit scoring chances in this contest.

Having conceded 0.89 xGA per game since taking over, Gerrard has built a backline that has the potential to limit — not stop — what Liverpool is capable of. That includes conceding attacking opportunities of its own, as Villa has conceded recently.

While all but one of Liverpool’s last six games would’ve gone over the total of 3.5, just one of them actually had an xG total that exceeded 3.5. Natural finishing regression has to be expected from Liverpool, and combined with Villa’s stout back line, I like the opportunity to take the under in this game.

Pick: Total Under 3.5 Goals (-120)

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