Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: How to Bet Southampton vs. Brighton

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Matt Watson/Southampton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Danny Ings

  • Brighton come into Thursday's match sitting just five points above relegation in the Premier League and could really use points against Southampton.
  • The Saints, meanwhile, are coming off a very strong performance Monday against Manchester United, although they've been quite poor at home, where they'll play today.
  • Where's the betting edge in this one? I'll break it all down below and give my favorite picks.

Brighton at Southampton Odds, Pick

Brighton odds +240 [BET NOW]
Southampton odds +120 [BET NOW]
Draw +230 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+104/-129) [BET NOW]
Time Thursday, 3:15 p.m. ET
TV NBC Sports Gold/Peacock

Odds as of Wednesday at 10:20 p.m. ET and via bet365. Get up to $100 in bet credits at bet365 today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Brighton & Hove Albion can guarantee themselves another season in the Premier League with a win over Southampton at St Mary’s on Wednesday afternoon.

The Saints have been in good form over the past few weeks so don’t expect them to lay over even though they have nothing at stake.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Southampton 

The Saints stunned Manchester United with a 95th-minute equalizer on Monday but you could argue that Southampton was unlucky not to get the win. The Saints created more expected goals, 1.6 to 1.32, than United and hung with the Red Devils all match.

It was another great result for Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side, which has now earned 11 points, of a possible 18, and has a +5 goal differential during Project Restart. Those results are a tad misleading because the Saints have a -1.62 xG differential since the hiatus, though a lot of that damage came against Manchester City in a lucky win.

With just 17 points from 17 matches, Southampton have the second-worst home record in the Premier League. Their odd struggles at home have continued after the break as Southampton have created 5.72 expected goals and created just 1.54 xG in two matches at St. Mary’s since the break.

Southampton matches typically feature a lot of scoring chances, with an average of 2.98 expected goals scored per match. Thus, it’s not surprising that 60% of their matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals.

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Brighton

The Seagulls are in a precarious spot at the moment, sitting only five points above the relegation zone. The Seagulls should be safe, but a loss to Southampton coupled with an Aston Villa win on Thursday would bring Brighton within three points of the drop.

Brighton have played the toughest schedule during Project Restart. Prior to getting crushed by Manchester City over the weekend, Brighton had grabbed seven of a possible 15 points against the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Leicester to keep their head above water.

Based on expected points (xPoints), Brighton are one of the most underrated teams in the Premier League. The Seagulls have earned 45.13 xPoints compared to just 36 actual points so they should be closer to a mid-table position than just above the drop zone.

Brighton average 2.85 total xG when they’re on the road and 53% of their away matches soared over 2.5 goals.

Analysis

Even though my model shows some value on Southampton, I can’t trust them based on their home form. Instead, I am going to look towards the Over/Under.

Since I have 2.94 expected goals projected for this match, I am going to back the Over 2.5 at plus-money.

  • Southampton projected odds: +100 (49.88% win probability)
  • Brighton projected odds: +279 (26.39%)
  • Draw projected odds: +322 (23.72%)
  • Southampton projected xG: 1.72
  • Brighton projected xG: 1.22
Pick: Over 2.5 (+104)

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