Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: West Ham vs. Manchester City (Saturday, Oct. 24)

West Ham vs. Manchester City Odds

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Manchester City had an unexpected start to the season and currently sits in 10th place in the Premier League. The Cityzens came out of the gates flat and have already dropped four points in their first four matches. With Pep Guardiola's side in a sandwich spot between Champions League matches, it will be interesting to see how he chooses his Starting XI on Saturday.

West Ham may be the most exciting team in the Premier League this season, purely based on how crazy their matches have been. They fell behind 3-0 against Tottenham last Sunday in the first 16 minutes, then scored three goals in the final eight minutes to draw 3-3, including this bullet from Manuel Lanzini in stoppage time:

West Ham is no stranger to upsetting some of the Premier League's best clubs, as they beat both Manchester United and Chelsea last season. They also have beaten Wolves and Leicester this season by a combined score of 7-0.

West Ham

The 2019-20 campaign was a difficult one for the Hammers, who finished in 16th place. However, they had a strong finish to the season, losing only one of their last seven matches to survive relegation.

So far this season, West Ham has drastically improved its offense, averaging 1.90 xG through its first five matches. However, what has plagued the Hammers over the past two years has been their defense. In 2019, West Ham allowed the third-most expected goals per match at 1.80. So far in 2020 they've improved, but they haven't faced an offense even close to Manchester City's.

Against the top four last season, West Ham allowed a whopping 2.15 xG per match, including seven goals to Manchester City in their two matches. The Cityzens should be able to create a ton of chances against the Hammers on Saturday.

Manchester City

The Cityzens come into this match on the back of a 1-0 win over Arsenal last Saturday and a 3-1 win over Porto in the Champions League on Wednesday.

What's been surprising about Manchester City through its first four Premier League is how bad its defense is. They've allowed a whopping 1.75 xG per match in 2020, which is a far cry from their 2019 season, when they allowed a Premier League-low 0.97 xG per match.

However, it's hard to ignore how good the Cityzens were in 2019-20. Even though they finished in second, City's +65.12 expected goals differential was nearly 30 goals better than Liverpool's.

Most of Manchester City's matches last year saw plenty of goals, especially on the road. On average, 3.87 total expected goals were scored in Manchester City road matches last year. That led to 53% of City's matches going over 3.5 goals.

All that said, this is a precarious spot for Manchester City with a Champions League fixture at Marseille coming up on Wednesday. However, given the slow start to the Premier League season, Saturday's encounter with West Ham should have Guardiola's full attention.

Projections and Pick

I have this game projected as the highest-scoring match of the weekend. Manchester City should be able to create a ton of high quality chances and the Hammers offense is capable of scoring multiple goals on the Cityzens' defense.

Honestly, is there a better way to start your Saturday than with a bunch of goals? I have 4.15 xG goals projected for this match, so I think there is plenty of value on Over 3.5 goals at plus money.

Pick: Over 3.5 (+106)

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