Premier League Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Wolverhampton vs. Bournemouth

Credit:

Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Pedro Neto celebrates with Raul Jimenez (right) of Wolverhampton.

Wolverhampton vs. Bournemouth Odds, Pick

Wolverhampton odds -177 (BET NOW)
Bournemouth odds +510 (BET NOW)
Draw odds +300 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 2.5 (+112/-139)
(BET NOW)
Time Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET
TV NBC Sports Gold

Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Two teams at opposite ends of the table clash Wednesday in the Premier as Wolves hosts Bournemouth. Wolves returned from the break with 2-0 win at West Ham, while Bournemouth lost a disappointing game at home to Crystal Palace. Both teams are desperate for all three points, but for different reasons.

Wolves are tied on points with Manchester United for fifth place and only five points off of Chelsea for fourth place. With Chelsea facing Man City on Thursday, a win could see Wolves move within two points of the Champions League spot.

Bournemouth are in the dreaded relegation zone with a tough schedule to finish out the season. The Cherries will be desperate to get some sort of result from this match before its too late.


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Wolves

Wolves did not skip a beat coming back from the break, with a solid performance against West Ham. It was dominate defensive performance, limiting West Ham to only 0.43 expected goals. Defense has been Wolves calling card all season long, especially at the Molineux Stadium.

Wolves only allow 1.06 xG per game at home, which is top five in the Premier League. One reason Wolves have been so solid defensively is their ability to limit their opponents big chances (35%> chance of scoring). Wolves rank first in the Premier League in Non-Penalty big chances conceded with only 24 allowed on the year.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


So far this season, Wolves have beaten up on the bottom of the table. In six matches, they’ve earned 15 of a possible 18 points and have outscored their opponents 16-to-4. Wolves are a very real threat to break into the top four and should have no trouble with a struggling Bournemouth side.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth were pathetic in their first game back from break, losing 2-0 at home to Crystal Palace. Most of their struggles this year have come offensively, which was all too apparent against Crystal Palace, only generating 0.55 xG.

So far this season, Bournemouth ranks 16th in the Premier League, with only 1.15 xG scored per game. Things only get worse for the Cherries when they are away from the Vitality Stadium. The Cherries only generate 1.03 xG per game, while at the same time conceding 1.86 xG per game on the road. It’s difficult to see how the Cherries will be able to generate any offense against one the Premier League’s best defenses.

Analysis

I don’t see this game going any other way than a dominate Wolves win. Based on my model, I think Wolves are a tad undervalued in this match:

  • Wolves projected odds: -234 (70.09% win probability)
  • Bournemouth projected odds: +909 (9.91% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +400 (20.00% win probability)
  • Wolves projected xG: 2.01
  • Bournemouth projected xG: 0.73

Based on those numbers I am going to back Wolves to win in a blow out.

Pick: Wolves -1 (+102)
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