Premier League Odds, Predictions, Picks | Best Bets for Newcastle vs Everton, More
Pictured: Callum Wilson. (Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images)
Here's everything you need to know about Premier League predictions and odds for Newcastle vs Everton, Nottingham Forest vs Fulham, Arsenal vs Luton Town and Brentford vs Manchester United. BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for the Premier League matches and a number of other leagues, you can find them here.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & predictions.
Premier League Odds & Predictions
| Newcastle Odds | -110 |
| Everton Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
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Cunningham: Newcastle are completely toast defensively because of all of their injuries. Now Lascelles is injured, which means Fabian Schar is the only true center back they have available. Some of the goals they allowed to West Ham on Saturday as well are the exact types of goals that Everton score, in transition and long balls. The first West Ham goal was a simple long ball over the top of Newcastle’s high line that could have been easily defended with a little communication. However, since Newcastle are so short handed, trying to play a high line with guys who haven’t played with each other very often leads to mistakes.
In addition to that, Newcastle are one of the worst teams in the Premier League at defending set pieces. The Magpies allow the fourth-highest xG per set piece, which is terrible news against Everton, who have the highest xG per set piece and have created the most expected goals off of corners.
Everton’s loss to Bournemouth optimizes the perception of underlying performance versus results. Outside of one miscommunication between the center backs that led to the Solanke goal, Bournemouth would have only created 0.56 expected goals for the match. Even after the Solanke goal in the 63rd minutes, Bournemouth did not take a shot.
Everton pounded Newcastle in the previous meeting at Goodison Park. They created 3.3 expected goals, won the match 3-0 and all three of their goals came in transition, which is where Newcastle is weakest.
I only have Newcastle projected at +136, so I like the value on Everton +0.5 at -106.
Pick: Everton +0.5 (-106 via BetRivers)
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +150 |
| Fulham Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Dabbundo: The primary difference between Fulham and Nottingham Forest’s current position in the Premier League table is set piece defense variance. Forest have conceded 18 goals from set pieces, three more than every other team in the league. That has come from roughly 10.04 xGA, a combination of poor goalkeeper shot stopping and elite finishing from opponents in dead ball situations.
Fulham have actually conceded more chances from set pieces this year — 10.93 xGA — and yet the Cottagers have allowed just five total goals. Only Manchester City have allowed fewer. The Cottagers have enjoyed a strong recent run of form in the last month with the emergence of Rodrigo Muniz to help solve their striker problems, but they are overvalued in the market in this back to back short rest road spot following a chaotic 3-3 draw at Sheffield United.
Nottingham Forest are playing their second consecutive match at home, and the Trees have an even expected goal difference since Nuno Espirito Santo became manager. They’ve improved by tightening up the defense, which has conceded the fifth-fewest xG since Christmas.
Fulham’s numbers have improved as well, but these two teams have comparable underlying numbers for three months now. Given that and the homefield advantage for Forest, the Cottagers are undervalued as a near pick’em. I’d bet Forest draw no bet at -125 or better.
Pick:Everton +0.5 (-130 via BetRivers)
| Arsenal Odds | -1000 |
| Luton Town Odds | +1800 |
| Draw | +900 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -400 / +300 |
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Cunningham: Arsenal can really pick the score here. Because of injuries to Luton Town's defensive midfield and their centerbacks, Rob Edwards has been put in a very difficult position because of this and has decided to man mark all over the pitch as opposed to playing a zonal block. They tried that early on in the season and it didn't work because they could not defend the middle of the pitch.
So, Edwards has decided that Luton has no choice but to play super aggressive and try to outscore their opponents. The result of that has been over their last nine matches they have conceded 22 expected goals and countless big scoring chances.
Under different circumstances, Arsenal may look to shut to the game down when getting a lead, but with goal difference potentially playing a part in the title race, Arsenal have kept their foot on the throttle and have been running up the score on teams in the bottom half of the table. When playing with a lead this season, Arsenal have a +1.59 xGD per 90 minutes when playing with a lead this season, per understat.com.
I have Arsenal's spread projected at -2.83, so I like the value on the Gunners -2.5 at -113.
Pick: Arsenal -2.5 (-113 via bet365)
| Brentford Odds | +137 |
| Brighton Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +137 |
Dabbundo: Brighton scored in the opening three minutes at Anfield on Sunday and then offered little else in terms of attacking threat on the Liverpool goal. The Seagulls' current injury absences have seriously blunted their attacking explosiveness and the current group grades out considerably better defensively than in attack relative to league average.
The Seagulls' totals in matches against English opposition are quietly 5-1-1 to the under in the last seven, with the lone exception being a five goal Brighton outburst against lowly Sheffield United where Brighton played up a man after the 13th minute. Brighton will have the majority of the possession in this match, but Brentford are still a high quality low block and counter team that can force Brighton into a lot of possession in non-dangerous areas that doesn’t really lead to big scoring chances.
Brighton especially miss the elite dribbling ability of Kaoru Mitoma to break down lower defensive blocks and the defense is quietly a top six unit by expected goals allowed per 90 minutes this season. When you factor in that this a second consecutive away match for Brighton with a similar starting XI on a short turnaround, it’s easy to see this game being lower event than normal due to fatigue.
Brighton have become a sneaky under team at present and I’d bet under 3 at -115 or better.
Pick:Under 3 (-106 via bet365)
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