Premier League Betting Preview: Liverpool-Tottenham Headlines Week 32
Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk
- The 2018-19 Premier League season is down to the final two months and we've got a fantastic title race between Liverpool (76 points) and Manchester City (74 points).
- This weekend's crucial matchup is Liverpool hosting Tottenham (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports) and the Reds are -160 favorites to secure the victory.
- I've looked at season trends and broken down the Week 32 betting market to find the best value plays to make.
Liverpool currently holds a two-point lead on Manchester City, but City has a game in hand, at the top of the Premier League table. Despite Liverpool sitting in first place, they’re the underdogs at +190 to win the league, while Man City are -250 favorites.
Man City also maintain a six-goal edge in goal differential (+58 to +52), which is the deciding factor for the title if the teams are tied on points at the end of the year.
Here’s a look at the betting trends for this season along with a betting breakdown and value plays for Week 32.
2018-19 Season Trends
- Leicester City are the most profitable moneyline bet (+13.98 units) while Fulham are by far the least profitable wager (-21.39 units).
- Home teams have been great again this season, accumulating +29.21 units compared to -22.12 units for road teams. Favorites are also in the black for the second straight season.
- Draws are still hitting at a record-low 19.08% for the 2018-19 season.
- Manchester United have been the most profitable team for betting Overs. Wolves have been the best bet for Unders, but oddly have not played a 0-0 game yet this season.
Will home teams and favorites continue to roll? Are draws poised to make a mini-comeback for the rest of the season?
For Week 32, I’ve analyzed the entire betting market and provided six value plays (Premier League Season Record: 39-72-1, -19.96 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Betting Market Breakdown and Value Plays
The biggest line move of the entire weekend has been toward Manchester City, even as massive -700 road favorites. Fulham fans plan on staging a protest at Craven Cottage so the home atmosphere could be very unusual, and an upset is highly unlikely.
I’ve burned more money than I’d like to admit on Fulham this season and won’t go down that road again, and instead will be backing the Cityzens to be victorious.
Crystal Palace are another favorite receiving some sharp money and have increased from -195 to -215 against Huddersfield, but they could be without star Wilfried Zaha due to injury.
He’s easily their most important player from a goal-scoring and creative standpoint so his absence would quickly drop the odds, even against lowly Huddersfield.
As for line movement toward underdogs, Burnley (+235 to +220) and Watford (+700 to +625) have attracted the most attention but not by public bettors.
Despite struggling against Manchester United in their history, Watford are getting some sharp support from bettors to keep it close at Old Trafford. Ole Gunnar Solsjkaer was just named the permanent manager of the Red Devils after salvaging a lost season from previously-fired Jose Mourinho, but smart money isn’t banking on a home win against Watford.
Burnley haven’t beaten Wolves at home since 2010, yet sharp action has hit the Clarets above +225. This seems like a dangerous bet considering Burnley’s defensive struggles this season as they’ve conceded more goals after the 90th minute (10) than any other team in Premier League history.
Other Betting News and Notes
Everton’s Yerry Mina (hamstring) is likely out this weekend against West Ham, and there’s also been some early sharp action on the over (2.5) around the market, so if you can get -120 or better I’d recommend playing it.
Draws have obviously struggled all season long, and we’ve done a good job of laying off lately, but I wouldn’t discount them for the rest of the year. There’s a historically profitable Bet Labs system matching on Southampton–Brighton draw this weekend due to the low over/under of 2 goals, and it’s a bet worth placing.
The marquee match of the week pits league-leaders Liverpool (-165) against third-place Tottenham (+490) at Anfield. Any dropped points by the Reds would allow Manchester City to leapfrog them in the standings and make it nearly impossible to catch on goal differential.
Casual bettors are loving Spurs to pull off the road upset, but wagers are fairly spread out on all three moneyline options. The lowest amount of support is on Liverpool (25% of bets) but they’ll surely be included in plenty of parlays.
In Sunday’s other contest, public bettors are also taking a shot on big underdogs Cardiff City (+600) to beat Chelsea. This will be a tall task, even at home, since the Bluebirds haven’t picked up points against a “big-six” side since 2013 (16 straight defeats).
- Southampton-Brighton Draw (+220)
- Burnley-Wolves Draw (+215)
- Leicester City-Bournemouth Draw (+290)
- Liverpool-Tottenham Draw (+325)
- West Ham-Everton Over 2.5 (-120)
- Arsenal/Man City Parlay (-165)
Want live updates of the action all weekend? Be sure to follow @actionnetsoccer on Twitter for all the latest soccer betting news around the market.