RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid Odds, Prediction, Pick | Champions League Match Preview
Diego Souto/Getty. Pictured: Eduardo Camavinga.
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid Odds
| RB Leipzig Odds | +210 |
| Real Madrid Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
For the second straight season, RB Leipzig and Real Madrid meet in the Champions League. This time it's in the round of 16.
RB Leipzig have had an interesting campaign this year. It's maybe not the one they hoped for sitting outside the top four in the Bundesliga table, but they did get through in second place in their Champions League group. They beat Real Madrid last year at home, so they will be looking to do the same and be in a good position for the second leg in Madrid.
Real Madrid have been in good form and are coming off a 4-0 pasting of Girona over the weekend. Los Blancos now have a pretty sizable lead in La Liga, so they can put more of their focus into the Champions League. The bad news for this first leg is they will be without their best player Jude Bellingham, so it's paramount that they get a result in Germany.
Here is my RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid prediction.
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig went through a crazy finishing run at the beginning of the season, but now they have sort of come back down to earth. They have been struggling in terms of form, winning just one of their last six matches, but their underlying metrics for the season are still really good.
RB Leipzig have a +0.72 xGD per 90 minutes, which isn’t that much worse than Real Madrid’s +0.83 xGD per 90 minutes in La Liga. Per UEFA coefficients, there really isn’t that big of a gap in terms of league strength between La Liga and the Bundesliga. What has made them so good this season is the amount of offensive fire power they have in their squad.
Xavi Simons and Lois Openda have been in great form combining for 20 goals and both are over a 0.50 xG + xA per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga. When RB Leipzig played Manchester City in the group stage, those two were especially dangerous on the break and will have a great opportunity here to cause problems for Real Madrid's defense.
RB Leipzig are going to attack in their 4-2-2-2 formations, always looking to play the ball through the middle of the pitch, which Real Madrid honestly hasn’t been elite at defending this season, especially with their best ball stopper playing center back and Camavinga questionable for this match.
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Real Madrid
Bellingham is a pretty massive loss for Real Madrid right now because he's been their main offensive threat since Los Blancos have basically been playing without a striker.
He has scored 20 goals between La Liga and the Champions League for Real Madrid, which is close to 30% of their total goals for the season. How he's used in their system is crucial as well. Because Karim Benzema is no longer there Carlo Ancelotti has switched Real Madrid to a 4-3-1-2 and used Bellingham as a box crashing striker. Real Madrid don't have anyone that can replace his level of production, so it'll be interesting to see what they try without him.
Real Madrid are not in a great position right now in terms of the health of their back line. They had to start Caravjal and Tchouaméni as their center back pairing against Girona this weekend with Lucas Vazquez at right back, which is not ideal, but even less ideal if Kroos and Modric start in the midfield and are going to be tasked with defending Xavi Simons in the half spaces.
Real Madrid in Europe have been great at home, but over the past few years they have struggled against good competition away from home. This year, they lost the xG battle to both Braga and Napoli and last season they lost to RB Leipzig in the group stage. They did beat both Liverpool and Chelsea away from home, but again the xG was basically even.
Madrid have also been struggling to defend set pieces lately. They’ve played Atletico Madrid three times and Diego Simeone’s men have created numerous chances off corners and in swinging crosses. Overall for the season, Real Madrid are 17th in xG per set piece allowed in La Liga. RB Leipzig are a fantastic set piece offense, scoring 11 goals off of them in the Bundesliga and ranking inside the top six in xG per set piece.
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid
Prediction
Real Madrid are limping into this match with how many key players they have out injured, but most importantly Bellingham is about as a big of a loss as their is in this competition.
RB Leipzig haven't been in great form, but they do have the attacking personnel available to give Real Madrid a lot of problems, especially considering the back line that they are going to have to play.
RB Leipzig beat Real Madrid last year during the group stage and given Los Blancos' form in Europe away from home, I wouldn't be surprised if they do it again.
I have this match projected right at a pick'em, so I like the value on RB Leipzig +0.5 at -137.
Pick: RB Leipzig +0.5 (-137 via BetRivers)
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