RC Lens vs Sevilla Prediction | UEFA Champions League Picks
Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Youssef En Nesyri.
RC Lens vs Sevilla Odds
| RC Lens Odds | -110 |
| Sevilla Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -106 / -118 |
RC Lens will host Sevilla in the final round of UEFA Champions League group-stage matches on Tuesday afternoon. Though both are already mathematically eliminated from the knockout rounds at this point, there is a Europa spot on the line for these Group B teams.
Lens are currently third in the group table, with one win out of their five UCL outings. A draw is all they need to secure a spot in the Europa League tournament.
Meanwhile, Sevilla are still searching for their first UCL win. The reigning Europa League champions are in need of a win if they are to have a chance at defending their title.
Read on for my Lens vs Sevilla prediction.
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RC Lens
Lens' first Champions League qualification in 21 years will end on Tuesday afternoon. While it certainly did not go as planned, they do have a highlight they can hang their hat on. That is beating current group leaders, Arsenal, 2-1 in front of their home fans.
However, that high was not matched in the reverse fixture, as they lost to the Gunners 6-0 in their latest UCL outing. Now, to avoid this competition being solely for extra cardio in the middle of their Ligue 1 matches, they will need a result against Sevilla, whom they drew 1-1 in Spain back in September to stamp their ticket to the Europa League tournament. It will be the first time they have qualified for the Europa League since the 2007–08 season.
Manager Franck Haise will fancy his side's chances to earn results on Tuesday given his side's recent form. They are unbeaten in their last Ligue 1 matches and have just one home loss in all competitions this calendar year.
Moreover, they left the reverse fixture against Sevilla feeling as if they could have won the match. They won the xG battle 1.40–0.833 and missed two open chances in front of goal. They will also have attacker Morgan Guilavogui back in the lineup, as he had to sit out the Arsenal match due to suspension.
Sevilla
Sevilla hit rock bottom in their European play in their last outing when they lost 3-2 to PSV Eindhoven. The Spanish side played nearly perfect for the first hour of the match taking a 2-0 lead in the 47th minute.
However, Lucas Ocampos picked up two consecutive yellow cards within a three-minute span taking his team down to 10 men. Just two minutes later, PSV found their opener and went on to steal the win thanks to an own goal and a stoppage-time winner by USA international Ricardo Pepi.
While the loss confirmed their dismissal from the tournament, veteran defender Sergio Ramos will make sure his team maintains focus. "We have to keep our heads high," Ramos said. "But it's disappointing because it's not always that you can be part of this competition."
Though they will no longer be a part of the Champions League competition they can advance to the Europa League playoff with a win over the French side.
Form isn't in favor of manager Diego Alonso's men, however, as they have gone nine league games without a win and have also gone an identical nine games without a Champions League away win. That said, one favor that is on Sevilla's side is that they are yet to lose a top-level European match away to a Ligue 1 opponent.
RC Lens vs Sevilla
Prediction
Though both sides will be eliminated from the competition after Tuesday's match, there is a lot on the line in this matchup, and both teams will be motivated for a win.
Lens hold a clear advantage when analyzing their home form compared to Sevilla's away form, but there isn't much to separate these teams. Sevilla have six goals for and 10 goals against while Lens have four goals for and 10 against. Furthermore, they have the same xG up to this point, with 4.7 apiece.
The one key statistic that stands out between the two teams that give us a betting angle is shots on-target ratio. Lens' currently allow 46.6% of their opponent's shots on target, the second-highest percentage in the competition.
Sevilla's shot leader Youssef En-Nesyri on the other hand averages 2.72 shots per game, giving him a 64.21% chance to accumulate one shot on target against the French side when using the complement rule.
Those implied odds would mean En-Nesyri's odds of achieving this feat are -180. However, you can currently find this line at -160, giving us good value.
Pick: Youssef En-Nesyri Over 0.5 Shots on Target (-160 via PointsBet)
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