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Champions League Odds for Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig: Bet on Regression on Wednesday Afternoon (Sept. 14)

Champions League Odds for Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig: Bet on Regression on Wednesday Afternoon (Sept. 14) article feature image
Credit:

Via DeFodi Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Timo Werner of RB Leipzig controls the Ball during the Bundesliga match between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund at Red Bull Arena on September 10, 2022 in Leipzig, Germany.

  • RB Leipzig facoes off against Real Madrid in the Spanish capital on Wednesday in the Champions league.
  • Madrid are home favorites, but are the defending Champions League champions overvalued in this spot?
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig Odds

Real Madrid Odds -185
Leipzig Odds +360
Draw +450
Over/Under 2.5 (-205 / +170)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

RB Leipzig produced the shock result of Matchweek 1 in the Champions League with its 4-1 defeat at home against Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donestsk. Shakhtar had lost two-thirds of its starters because of the war in the last six months and scored four of its five shots in the match.

As a result, Leipzig fired Domenico Tedesco and brought in former Borussia Mönchengladbach and Dortmund manager Marco Rose to manage the side. Rose has experience managing in the Champions League after his Gladbach side drew Real Madrid in 2020 and advanced to the knockout stage.

He’ll get a chance to face them on Wednesday, now with Real Madrid as the defending champions of the competition in the Spanish capital. Madrid are deserving favorites at home in this match, but the market is showing them too much love here.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid won the Champions League last year in a historically fortunate run of finishing variance and late comebacks.

The club finished the tournament with 21.6 xG for and 19.6 xGA overall – that’s slightly above average in terms of creating and allowing chances. They had a negative xG difference in seven knockout matches against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool.

Madrid actually scored 28 goals and conceded just 14 in their matches, which shows how well Karim Benzema and Vincius Jr. finished chances at one end and how effective Thibault Courtois was as a shot-stopper at the other end.

Regression is inevitable for Madrid in the Champions League, but there’s also an argument to be made that the overall level of the side will be better this season with Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouaméni getting more and more minutes in the center of the park.

Real will be without Benzema, and while that didn’t really matter against Celtic in a 3-0 dominant win last match, Leipzig is a much better side.

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RB Leipzig

Leipzig’s personnel is pretty uniquely suited to play in a Rose system, given the number of excellent pacey runners to get in behind against Real Madrid. Rose prioritizes quickly getting the ball forward when the ball is won in the midfield. Leipzig has plus plus passers like Dani Olmo and Emil Forsberg in the No. 10 role. This is similar to where Florian Neuhaus excelled under Rose at Gladbach.

Timo Werner is as good at running in behind as anyone thanks to his pace, and he caused tons of problems for Real Madrid in the Champions League when he played for Chelsea last season in the 3-1 second-leg Blues victory.

Dominik Szoboslai is also an able and willing runner on the left wing, and he and Werner can take advantage of a Madrid defense that has badly struggled to keep clean sheets in La Liga to begin the year. Christopher Nkunku’s leap last year has continued, and he’s an excellent ball carrier and shot producer.

The biggest question is how effectively Leipzig will defend Madrid’s attack. Leipzig’s defense had a tendency to concede big scoring chances under past managers, and that’s a very dangerous situation given the elite transition efficiency of a side like Real Madrid.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

For as much recognition as Benzema, Vinicius and Luka Modric get for Real Madrid’s seemingly endless Champions League success, it’s important to note that they’re not invincible in the competition. Shakhtar, Gladbach, Chelsea, and FC Sheriff have all drawn and or beaten Real in the last three seasons.

The Real defense continues to have major issues with five goals conceded in five league matches. Leipzig is a major positive regression candidate after a slow start to the season, and I’m personally a believer that Rose will improve Leipzig.

Madrid is the marginally better team across the board but not enough to be laying a full goal in this match. My projections make Real a -180 favorite with Benzema, so if you take him out, I’ll take the goal with RB Leipzig on the road.

The Pick: Leipzig +1 (-110)

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