Champions League: Real Sociedad vs PSG Odds, Pick

Tuesday, Mar. 5

3 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Real Sociedad Odds	+150
PSG Odds	+170
Draw	+240
Over / Under	2.5  -106 / -118

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Real Sociedad look to overcome a two goal deficit when they host PSG.

Sociedad had an outstanding first half in the first leg against PSG, but everything fell apart in the second half and they are now facing a mountain to climb in the second half. They've been in bad form in La Liga, coming off getting knocked out of Copa del Rey by Mallorca and losing to Sevilla over the weekend in La Liga, so things are looking grim heading into this second leg.

PSG are on cruise control in Ligue 1 and have put together back to back lackluster results against Rennes and Monaco. There is also the aspect of what is going on off the pitch. It's pretty much confirmed that Kylian Mbappe will be playing for Real Madrid next season and PSG keep subbing him off in their Ligue 1 matches because, as Luis Enrique says, "we need to learn how play without Mbappe." They may progress to the next round here, but things do not look good for their long term prospects in the Champions League.

Here a Real Sociedad vs PSG prediction in my latest Champions League preview.

Even though Real Sociedad have been struggling offensively this year, they are a really good out of possession side and they showcased that in the first leg against PSG.

Real Sociedad are an elite team out of possession because of their compact defensive shape and their pressing. They are the No. 1 team in La Liga in PPDA and progressive passes & dribbles allowed. They will press out of a 4-4-2 and the main principles are to not allow teams to play through the center parts of the pitch. They’ve done this to great success in La Liga, allowing just 0.98 npxG per 90 minutes. Against PSG in the first leg, they limited them to just eight deep completions and were able to force eight high turnovers.

The question is are they good enough offensively to overcome a two goal deficit? The simple answer to that is no. They were only able to create 0.6 xG in the first leg even though they had numerous transition opportunities. They have a lot of great dribblers in their side, but when they do break in direct attacks it's usually pretty slow, as they put an emphasis on maintaining possession after they win the ball.

They've been in bad form recently in front of net. They've only created 9.8 expected goals in their last 10 matches in all competitions and in their last seven La Liga matches they've only created one big scoring chance.

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In the first leg, PSG did what they usually do under Luis Enrique. They tried building out of the back and quite frankly they didn't have much success doing that. If you look at PSG's pass map from their first leg, it was a lot of passes in their own final third with a lot of long balls up to Mbappe, which is back to how they played before Luis Enrique took over. My guess is they will try that same approach in the second leg, but the problem is Enrique is stuck in his ways and always wants his team to play out of the back with short passes to play through the opponents pressure, which plays right into what Sociedad do successfully.

In Ligue 1 this season, PSG are averaging 64.9% possession, 22.5 10-plus pass sequences per match and have one of the longest sequence times in Europe's big five leagues. That is wonderful, but it's one thing to do that against teams in the bottom half of the table of Ligue 1, but as we saw in the first leg, trying that against an elite out of possession team doesn't really work.

Out of possession, PSG have become a much better team than in the past because of their counter pressing. However, given the situation they are in having a two goal advantage, I am not really sure they are going to want to play aggressively and will most likely sit in a passive defensive block, which will be the best plan of attack against Real Sociedad.

This match is set up to quite frankly be kind of snooze-fest. I know Real Sociedad are down two goals and need to play aggressively, but that goes against everything they try to do tactically.

Real Sociedad are one of the highest reliance teams on deep ball circulation in Europe's top five leagues. They are not a team that can just suddenly flip a switch and start playing like Liverpool. For PSG, they just need to sit an a low defensive block and see this match out. There is no need for them to play aggressively out of possession, which is going to create a very slow-paced match.

There were only 2.16 expected goals created in the first leg and I am expecting another low-event type of match in the second leg, so I like the value on the under.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-108 via FanDuel)