Saturday Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Lille (April 3)
Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappé, left, celebrates a goal with his teammates.
PSG vs. Lille Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-109 / -112)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 11 a.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings.|
The Ligue 1 title is on the line in Paris Saturday when league leaders PSG host Lille.
PSG hasn’t been their usual dominant selves this season in France and find tied on points with Lille, with only eight matches left in the season. The three-time defending champions also have a vitally important Champions League quarterfinal match with Bayern Munich on Wednesday, so the Parisians are in a precarious spot coming off the international break.
Lille has led Ligue 1 for most of the season, but is starting to allow that lead to slip right through their fingers. If you’re surprised to see Lille on top of the Ligue 1 table, don’t be. They have the best defensive record among Europes’ major five leagues allowing only 19 goals in 30 matches.
While Lille doesn’t have one main star, they are incredibly deep at every position and are capable of pulling off an upset at the Parc des Princes.
Trying to win at Parc de Princes is a tall task for any team, but some of the top teams in France have given PSG a lot of problems this season. PSG is 2-4-1 against the top six teams in Ligue 1 and have a -1.13 xGD.
The Parisians have been dominant at home this season, averaging 2.35 xG per match, while only allowing 0.94 xG per match. However, they have surprisingly lost back-to-back home matches in Ligue 1 to Monaco and Nantes. Mauricio Pochettino’s side is a bit vulnerable coming back from international break.
In the match earlier between these two teams, it was a snooze fest, with not a lot of chances being created. However, that is exactly how Lille wanted the match to go. They kept a clean sheet against the best offense in the league and held them to 0.51 xG.
It will be interesting to see how much PSG put into this match with Bayern Munich looming on Wednesday in the Champions League. Either way they’re going to have a really difficult time breaking down the best defense in Europe.
Lille is starting to see their lead a top the table slip away. Before the international break they were upset at home by Nimes, which allowed PSG to tie them on points heading into this weekend. Lille is the best defensive team in Europe, allowing 0.61 xG per match in Ligue 1 play. But what makes their defense so good?
Lille typically line up in a 4-4-2, but their formation can change in an instant depending on what they see from their opponent. In reality, Lille plays a 4-2-4, with the two outside wingers pushing far out wide to create space in the middle for the two strikers.
Defensively, they are incredibly organized at the back with all four defenders on the back line playing in unison and usually bunching towards the middle to force the opponents to play the ball from out wide.
The wingers are required to get back and defend the opposing wing backs making runs out wide, but they have done phenomenal job of that this year. If you want to read in depth tactical analysis on Lille’s ascension to the top of the table, the guys at NACSport have done a fantastic job breaking it all down.
Bottom line is Lille is likely going to sit back and play very defensive against PSG like they did in the first match. Additionally, Lille’s offense hasn’t been that lethal this season, as they only are averaging 1.32 xG per match, which ranks seventh in Ligue 1.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I think this match is going to be very similar to the first meeting with Lille playing very defensive and cautious trying to limit PSG’s opportunities in front of net.
PSG is averaging 0.92 xG per match against the top six teams in France this season, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Lille gets another clean sheet against the defending champions.
Since I have just 1.98 goals projected for this match, I think there is some value on under 2.5 goals at -112 odds.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-112)