Premier League Odds & Betting Picks for Leicester City vs. Manchester City (Saturday, April 3)

Premier League Odds & Betting Picks for Leicester City vs. Manchester City (Saturday, April 3) article feature image
Credit:

Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Sergio Aguero.

  • It will be a clash of Premier League titans Saturday when Manchester City travels south to face Leicester City in a crucial match.
  • The Foxes pulled off a win the first time around this season, but the Cityzens might be the best club in the world at the moment.
  • Jeremy Pond explains why he likes Manchester City to exact revenge in the rematch below.

Leicester City vs. Manchester City Odds

Leicester City Odds +440
Manchester City Odds -155
Draw +295
Over/Under 2.5 (-118 / -106) 
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds updated Saturday morning and via DraftKings.

There are heavyweight battles, and then there’s the intense showdown on Saturday at King Power Stadium in East Midlands.

Global soccer juggernaut Manchester City journeys south to face powerful Leicester City in a battle of top-three Premier League clubs. These sides are separated by 15 points in the table, but there are major ramifications tied to this most intriguing of fixtures.

The Cityzens have all but sealed the deal in England’s top flight, sitting 14 points ahead of second-place Manchester United in the standings. They’ve won 25 of their last 26 matches across all competitions, including 17 of their last 18 league affairs.

On the other side, the Foxes are in the midst of a fantastic campaign that has them positioned to secure one of four Champions League berths given to the first division. They will look to pad their points haul down the stretch to reach European football next season.

These sides met way back in third week of the season, with Leicester City pulling off a shocking 5-2 triumph over Manchester City on Sept. 27 at Emirates Stadium.

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Leicester City

Life has been pretty good for the Foxes, who enter this match winners of three on the bounce. They looked fantastic the last time on the pitch in their 3-1 win over Manchester United in their FA Cup quarterfinal battle.

However, the focus now fully shifts toward this ultra-important fixture. Picking up a home point would be nice for Leicester City, but securing all three would be massive to say the least. The club needs to put some separation between it and Chelsea and West Ham United

Jamie Vardy continues to power the Foxes’ mighty offense, leading the way with a team-leading 12 goals. Vardy and his teammates will have to be at their best if they’re going to pull off their first league double against Manchester City since the 1986-87 season.

Statistically, Leicester City has been pretty solid overall when in the advanced metrics. The Foxes sit on a impressive 44.0 expected goals and 34.5 xGA, resulting in a respectable +9.5 xGDiff and +0.33 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Manchester City

The Cityzens are so close to putting the title race to bed, which means leaving King Power with three points would be a huge step toward realizing that goal.

However, one of the more interesting storylines heading down the stretch will be how manager Pep Guardiola uses veteran striker Sergio Aguero, who is leaving the club at the end of the season.

How much does the beloved Aguero mean to Manchester City and its supporters? It was the marksman’s goal deep in stoppage time on Decision Day that led the Cityzens to the league crown during the 2011-2012 season.

It’s hard to not get goosebumps watching the replay and hearing the call of the league-deciding goal. P.S.: Mario Balotelli had one assist in 70 career Premier League appearances. It came on Aguero’s goal of legends.

One of @ManCity's most iconic players, Sergio Aguero 💙pic.twitter.com/90MDXNw4es

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) March 29, 2021

When comparing numbers with Leicester City, Manchester City is far and away better than its foe. The Cityzens boast a ridiculous 58.1 xG and 23.6 xGA, generating a downright absurd +34.5 xGDiff and +1.15 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Bottom line, no one is even close to producing the kind of statistics Manchester City has posted this season. The Cityzens, who hold double-digit leads in xG, xGA and xGDiff over their next closest competitor, are just that much better than the Foxes and the rest of the clubs.

Betting Analysis & Picks

One word. Revenge.

In my opinion, that’s what this match is all about. Nothing more.

For that reason, I am backing Manchester City in this meeting and will back it via the alternative line of -0.75 at -139 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. The Cityzens are just too good and will not want to get swept in league play by one of its most formidable opponents.

I will also jump on the total going over the number as well. Manchester City has scored at least two goals in eight of its last 10 league contests, plus they’ve scored at least three goals in their last five victories in England’s top flight.

Add in the fact there have been at least three goals in Leicester City’s last four league confrontations at King Power Stadium, and I like my chances of this wager coming through as well.

Picks: Manchester City -0.75 (-139) | Total Over 2.5 Goals (-115)

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