Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Take Aston Villa to Cover Short Number (April 10)

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Take Aston Villa to Cover Short Number (April 10) article feature image
Credit:

Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Ollie Watkins

  • Liverpool is a decent favorite to defeat Aston Villa in Saturday's Premier League match, but the Reds are in a tough schedule spot with Champions League action awaiting them on the other side of the weekend.
  • BJ Cunningham explains where the betting value is, and gives his Liverpool vs. Aston Villa pick.

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Odds

Liverpool Odds -205
Aston Villa Odds +540
Draw +360
Over/Under 3 (+100 / -122)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

Liverpool will need a win over Aston Villa on Saturday to close the gap between them and the top-four in the Premier League standings. The Reds are big favorites to get the three points but are coming off an interesting week after the international break.

Liverpool looked fantastic in a 3-0 rout over Arsenal at The Emirates on Saturday, but they followed that performance up with a discouraging 3-1 loss at Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals. It’s been difficult season for Jurgen Klopp, as he’s had to navigate a ton of injuries to key players, but the Reds are only three points behind West Ham for fourth place. So, Liverpool desperately needs all three points from this match.

Aston Villa have also had an interesting few weeks as they’ve been without their captain and best player, Jack Grealish, for the past seven matches. They’ll likely be without him again on Saturday, so it’s hard to know if the Villans will look like the team that beat Fulham, 3-1, last Sunday or the one that lost at home to Tottenham, 2-0, two weeks ago.

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Liverpool

Liverpool looked fantastic versus Arsenal last Saturday, holding the Gunners to three shots for the match. However, they put up a dud of a performance against Real Madrid Wednesday, as they didn’t even record a shot in the first half of the match.

Things haven’t been going great for manager Jürgen Klopp’s men, who have created 1.41 xG per match since the beginning of February, compared to 2.07 xG in their first 14 fixtures of the season.

The Reds have a major tactical problem at the moment. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives teams fits. Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps opponents from playing long balls up the field, causing most of them to spend less time on the ball since they’re forced to make quick passes. With Liverpool’s top three center backs out for the rest of the season, they have to back off Klopp’s patented high press so its fill-in defenders aren’t exposed.

It’ll be interesting to see what starting XI Klopp goes with on Saturday with the second leg against Real Madrid coming up on Wednesday. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see some of their best players start on the bench.

Aston Villa

Despite being in the 9th place, Aston Villa boast one of the best attacks in the Premier League. The Villains are creating 1.58 xG per match, which is the fifth-best rate in the Premier League. However, they have really been missing their do-everything playmaker Jack Grealish over the past two months.

Grealish is responsible for six goals and eleven assists to his name. He also has the second-highest expected assists per 90 minute rate behind only Kevin de Bruyne. The Villans have really struggled to create chances without him. The table below shows just how important Grealish is for Aston Villa’s attack

However, as you can see, Aston Villa’s defense hasn’t missed a beat since Grealish has been out, so I think Liverpool is going to have a difficult time creating high quality chances against them.

Aston Villa vs. Liverpool Best Bet

Even without Jack Grealish, I really like the price on Aston Villa in this match, especially with Liverpool in a sandwich spot between Champions League matches. Aston Villa’s defense should be able to hold a struggling Liverpool attack in check, so I like the Villans to get a result on the road.

Since I only have Liverpool projected at -114, I am going to back Aston Villa’s spread of +1 at +105 odds.

Pick: Aston Villa +1 (+105)

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