Premier League Odds & Betting Picks: Manchester City vs. Sheffield United (Saturday, Jan. 30)
Nick Potts – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Phil Foden (left), Ilkay Gundogan (center) and Okeksandr Zinchenko.
- Manchester City have taken the Premier League by storm, having allowed just one goal during a seven-match winning streak.
- Sheffield United are coming off a stunning upset away to Manchester United, as the Blades look to climb out of the Premier League cellar.
- Matt Trebby breaks down where to find value in this matchup, which appears to be pretty lopsided.
Manchester City vs. Sheffield United Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-835|
|Sheffield United Odds||+2000|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
Sheffield United will look to pull off a stunning double against the Premier League’s two Manchester clubs during a trip to the Etihad Stadium on Saturday morning.
Unfortunately for the Blades, while the result against Manchester United was fantastic, the Red Devils are not in the dominant form that their noisy neighbors are. Manchester City are one point ahead of United with a game in-hand atop the Premier League and in a stunning run of form — especially defensively.
As reflected by the odds, it’s likely that City — winners of their last seven Premier League games — will come away with all three points from this game. Let’s figure out how to find betting value on it.
Let’s try to put Manchester City’s dominance into perspective over the last seven matches.
City have allowed one goal during their seven-match march to the top of the table. That goal came in the 92nd minute of a 3-1 win over Chelsea to give the match its final scoreline. (Shoutout Cheltenham Town, who opened the scoring last Saturday against City in the FA Cup, only to lose, 3-1.)
A lot of that comes down to their center-back pairing of new signing Ruben Dias and (checks notes to be sure) John Stones. Given City’s defensive prowess this season, Dias should be getting votes for player of the season. Stones, on the other hand, has all the physical tools to be a top defender and appears to have finally put things together alongside his Portuguese defensive partner.
After starting the first game of the season against Wolves on Sept. 21, Stones had to wait until Nov. 28 for his next minutes in the league. He has started 10 of City’s last 11 Premier League games — a run during which they have conceded two goals.
It was the attack of Guardiola’s side that was unable to get going early in the season, but City have scored multiple goals in five of the last seven games, including 4-0 and 5-0 wins against Crystal Palace and West Brom within their last three league wins.
If I would have told you before the season that in late January Ilkay Gundogan would be City’s leading scorer through 19 games, that he would have only played 14 of those and that they were top of the league, you’d call me crazy. But here we are, living in abnormal times.
Sheffield United definitely haven’t been good this season, but to say they’re one of the worst teams in Premier League history wouldn’t be accurate based on their performances.
The Blades are 18th in non-penalty expected goal difference, according to Understat, which still isn’t great — but it’s very close to other sides toward the bottom of the Premier League. They have looked good in each of their last three games against Newcastle, Tottenham and Manchester United, two of which were victories.
The performance against Newcastle was fantastic; although, United was stretched defensively at times while holding onto a one-goal lead. Conceding two first-half goals doomed them against Spurs, although there was a strong second-half performance that was reason for optimism.
Then came the win at Old Trafford. This victory was the football gods saying they were sorry for all the hardship they had forced upon the Blades this season.
A damning statistic for Manchester United: Sheffield United have scored multiple goals just twice in the Premier League this season, and both of those instances came against the Red Devils.
While recent performances have been encouraging, the Blades are about to face off with one of the best teams in Europe and probably the best defense in club football.
Betting Analysis & Picks
What a story this would be: Sheffield United head to the Etihad and taking an improbable point (or three!) off the league leaders.
The gulf in quality is simply too great, though. And so are City’s odds to bet them. Backing Guardiola’s side at -1.5 is still -225!
We’ll turn to the totals for value and parlay the two. On DraftKings, you can parlay over 1.5 goals for Manchester City (-480) with under 0.5 for Sheffield United (-177) and get down to -104.
While the Blades have shown they are capable going forward, it seems highly likely they are kept off the scoresheet.
For City, they’ve scored at least two in each of their past three league games against sides higher in the table than Sheffield United. This is the safest way to get anywhere near a positive number for this one.
Pick: Parlay: Manchester City Over 1.5 goals & Sheffield United Under 0.5 goals (-104)