Brighton & Hove Albion vs. West Ham Betting Odds, Preview & Picks: How to Bet Important Premier League Matchup (May 15)
Phil Noble/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Graham Potter and Yves Bissouma.
- West Ham still has eyes on a Champions League place as it heads south to take on Brighton & Hove Albion.
- The Hammers have been struggling over the past couple months due to injuries, most notably to standout midfielder Declan Rice.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the important Saturday's Premier League matchup, delivering his betting analysis and pick below.
Brighton vs. West Ham Odds
|West Ham Odds||+135|
|Over/Under||2.5 ( +100/ -125)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings|
West Ham suffered a setback in their quest for a Champions League place when the Hammers lost to Everton on Sunday. With three matches to go, West Ham are in a must-win situation as they travel to England’s south coast to take on Brighton on Saturday.
The Seagulls are safe from relegation now and don’t have much to play for, but the market is still undervaluing them in this spot as it tends to do late in seasons when one team has a lot more to play for than the other.
West Ham have finally come down to earth a bit in recent weeks since their unsustainably hot finishing run, and there is value in betting against them again on Saturday.
Brighton: Seagulls Could Frustrate Opponent’s Attack
Brighton’s 2020-21 season will be remembered for years to come, not for memorable wins or excellent attacking play, but for their historically unlucky run of variance.
Every time it seems like the Seagulls are about to reel off a bunch of wins, they lose games despite outplaying their opponent for long stretches. But the past doesn’t necessarily predict the future with the Seagulls and even with nothing on the line and them confirmed safe for next year’s Premier League season, Brighton have the ability to break down West Ham’s shaky defense.
The Seagulls are one of the most pressure resistant teams in the league and the result is that West Ham are likely to sit off them, concede space and look to counter. Brighton will be without forward Neil Maupay and center back Lewis Dunk after their red cards last week vs. Wolves, but neither is irreplaceable.
Maupay has struggled in front of goal all season, and it could give manager Graham Potter a chance to give Aaron Connolly more minutes. The 21-year old forward has averaged 0.4 expected goals (xG) per 90 and might have more success in front of goal than Maupay.
If Potter has shown anything in his time with the Seagulls, it’s been that his players know how to operate and execute his system of possession and passing. The kind of system that could frustrate West Ham.
West Ham: Hammers Stuck in Neutral, Not Gaining Ground
The Hammers have recently maintained their place in the table as close challengers to Chelsea and Leicester City for the top-four places, but the reality is that they haven’t been playing good soccer for months.
In the Hammers’ last five games, they’ve lost the xG battle four times. In total, they’ve generated 5.9 xG and conceded 8.6. The loss of central midfielder Declan Rice, who is unlikely to play Saturday, and injuries to key center backs have left them playing much worse than the fall and winter months.
For the year, West Ham sits sixth in the Premier League, but they’re ninth in the xG table. Defensive regression of late has been their issue, having conceded 1.8 xG to Burnley, 2.2 to Chelsea, 1.7 to Everton and 1.8 to Newcastle.
This is an ideal spot to bet against the Hammers because of how the market is responding to them being in a must-win spot.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Last time these two teams met, Brighton were the better side for large stretches of the game and conceded a late equalizer to Tomas Soucek. The Seagulls had more of the ball, generated more shots and conceded a couple big scoring chances and goals in a 2-2 draw.
My projections show this as my biggest edge of the weekend. My Brighton draw no bet line is -120, so I’d take any draw no bet number with plus odds. If this game had happened a month ago, the Hammers wouldn’t be nearly as favored as the current market suggests. My model makes these teams about even, with Brighton being at home and favored.
Pick: Brighton — Draw No Bet (+115 — play +100 or better)