Saturday EPL Betting Picks, Predictions: Liverpool vs. Southampton, Brighton vs. Leeds Highlight Our Best Bets

Saturday EPL Betting Picks, Predictions: Liverpool vs. Southampton, Brighton vs. Leeds Highlight Our Best Bets article feature image

Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool stars Sadio Mané, left, and Mohamed Salah.

  • Betting the Premier League on Saturday morning? Our staff knocked their heads together to come up with their favorite plays on the card.
  • They're targeting Liverpool vs. Southampton, and Leeds as an underdog against Brighton.
  • Get our two favorite EPL bets for Saturday below.

Premier League action resumes this weekend, with a full schedule of matches on the slate. There are a handful of intriguing games for bettors to mull over, but we have targeted two confrontations for our latest best bets.

Soccer analysts Avery Zimmerman and Brett Pund deliver their top plays on the docket, with their selections coming from contests featuring Liverpool vs. Southampton and Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Leeds United.

Check out below how our handicappers are playing these meetings and what kind of betting value they've found ahead of these exciting matchups.

Liverpool vs. Southampton

Liverpool Odds-350
Southampton Odds+850
Over/Under3.5 (+105 / -130)
Day | TimeSaturday | 10 a.m. ET
How To WatchUSA Network | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

Avery Zimmerman: For as good as Liverpool is capable of being at Anfield, this feels like a surprisingly low price on the Reds.

Southampton hasn't necessarily been a poor road team, creating 1.19 expected goals per match away from Saint Mary's Stadium and 1.47 xGA/game. Yet, at times Liverpool is capable of being an impossible force to shut down on home soil.

The Reds have a 3-0-3 record (W-L-D) at Anfield this year and a plus-9 goal differential, which is in line with their 1.28 xG margin per game at home. With a midweek Champions League match, there might be some fatigue that could begin to set in, but Liverpool should be fairly fresh with Virgil Van Dijk, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Fabinho all getting a rest on the day, among others.

Two of Liverpool's draws at home also include the two other best teams in the league — Manchester City and Chelsea. A shocking collapse against Brighton & Hove Albion represents the only other occasion that Liverpool has dropped points at home in all competitions this season.

Back the Reds to show why they're still title contenders and dominate a Southampton team that doesn't have the quality to hang on Merseyside.

Zimmerman's Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (-120)

Brighton vs. Leeds

Brighton Odds+110
Leeds Odds+265
Over/Under2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | TimeSaturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchNBC | fuboTV | Peacock Premium
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Brett Pund: Leeds United travels to the south coast to take on Brighton & Hove Albion in the late kickoff on the slate. And I think the away side is good value for a positive result.

Since I have these teams rated equally, my best bet is to take the Peacocks on the spread line of +0.5 at -125 odds. You have to go all the way back to the Sept. 19 victory over Leicester City to find Brighton's last win which is a span that includes draws with bottom-tier teams in Norwich City and Newcastle United to go with a surprising tie with Liverpool.

Although it’s been a slow start to the campaign for Leeds, manager Marcelo Bielsa’s squad is beginning to pick up where it left off last year, ranking 10th in the form table with a pair of wins, draws and losses over its last six league matches.

The visitors hold the advantage in non-penalty expected goals per match, shots per 90 minutes, NPxG allowed per outing and shots allowed per game. Neither team does a great job at creating big scoring chances, while they both do a solid job at not allowing big chances on the defensive side.

As long as Rodrigo and Raphinha are healthy enough to play, Leeds will have the better attacking talent on the field, which should be enough to at least get a draw in this match.

Pund's Pick: Leeds +0.5 (-125)

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