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Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Sunday Best Bets, Including Atalanta & Lecce (Sept. 11)

Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Sunday Best Bets, Including Atalanta & Lecce (Sept. 11) article feature image
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Isabella Bonotto/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images. Pictured: Atalanta standout Luis Muriel.

On the heels of a midweek European schedule, Serie A returns to action this weekend for its sixth week of matches in the 2022-23 campaign.

Although there aren’t many fixtures the casual observer would identify as “marquee,” there are still plenty of interesting clashes across the schedule. For example, Inter Milan hosts Torino following its midweek defeat to Bayern Munich, while Juventus is on home soil to face a surprising Salernitana side.

But, which three games provide bettors the best overall value? Without further delay, here are my top plays for this weekend’s Serie A slate.

Our 3 Serie A Best Bets

Atalanta vs. Cremonese

Atalanta Odds -300
Cremonese Odds +775
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +125)
Day | Time Sunday | 6:30 a.m. ET
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Atalanta’s attack has looked solid to start the season and I expect it to excel at home against Serie A newcomers Cremonese.

Historically, manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s squad has excelled against promoted sides. Across its previous 13 home matches against newly-promoted clubs, it has generated 2.62 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. Just in the six home matches fitting that criteria, Atalanta has created 2.58 xG per 90 minutes.

Just last week against Monza — another promoted side — Atalanta generated 1.95 xG to pair with three big scoring chances.

As for Cremonese, I rate manager Massimiliano Alvini’s side as a negative regression candidate. Through five Serie A fixtures, Cremonese has conceded nine goals against 13 big scoring chances and conceded north of two big scoring chances per 90 minutes away from home.

For those reasons, I’ll back Atalanta’s team total clearing over 2.5 goals as my top play.

By The Numbers

  • 4th/6th — Atalanta rankings in total xG & total big scoring chances tables.
  • 11.4 — Total xG allowed by Cremonese this season, the most in the Italian first division.

Hennion’s Pick: Atalanta — Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+120 | Play to +105)

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Lecce vs. Monza

Lecce Odds +120
Monza Odds +220
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -120)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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It’s a relegation six-pointer in southern Italy and I’m once again hopping aboard the Monza fade train.

This will undoubtedly be Monza’s easiest opponent to date, but the fact remains it has a -20 big scoring chances differential this season to boot. The worse part? Even if you just consider Monza’s two home matches against Udinese and Torino — two good-but-not-great sides — it still has a -6 big scoring chances differential.

On the flip side, Lecce arrives at this contest with a respectable -5 big scoring chances differential to pair with a -2 big scoring chances differential in two home fixtures against Inter Milan and Empoli.

Plus, Lecce absolutely dominated this head-to-head meeting in Serie B last season. Across both fixtures, manager Marco Baroni’s side won both games by a combined 4-0 margin and posted a +8 big scoring chances differential.

For those reasons, back the hosts to grab all three points as Monza continues its downward spiral.

By The Numbers

  • 6 — Big scoring chances at home versus Monza last season for Lecce.
  • 24 — Total big scoring chances allowed by Monza this campaign.

Hennion’s Pick: Lecce ML (+120)

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Lazio vs. Hellas Verona

Lazio Odds -160
Verona Odds +400
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 12 p.m. ET
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This head-to-head fixture proved completely bonkers last season and I’m expecting nothing less in this latest affair.

Lazio will be playing a Thursday Europa League fixture, which will likely lead to some tired legs at the back. What’s more is that manager Maurizio Sarri’s side is facing a Verona team that could see some positive regression. Entering this fixture, Verona has a -3 goal differential against a +3 big scoring chances differential.

Just on the attacking end, Verona has scored six goals against 10 big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

At the same time, this Verona defense conceded nine big scoring chances to Lazio across two head-to-head battles last season and hasn’t kept a clean sheet against its foe in any of its last six encounters. Additionally, Verona rank 18th so far this season in penalty area touches against, per fbref.com.

With those stats in mind, I’ll back a Same Game Parlay pairing Both Teams To Score (Yes) with the total clearing 2.5 goals as my best bet for this match.

By The Numbers

  • 11/17 — Total goals vs. Total big scoring chances in two head-to-head fixtures last season.
  • 76 — Percent of Verona matches that saw both teams score last campaign. 

Hennion’s Pick: Same Game Parlay — Both Teams To Score (Yes) & Total Over 2.5 Goals (+100)

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