Genoa vs. SPAL Betting Odds, Picks: Predictions for Sunday’s (July 12) Serie A Match

Serie A Odds: SPAL at Genoa

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Genoa and SPAL may not be the biggest names in Serie A but the stakes are quite high for their match on ESPN this Sunday morning.

SPAL are almost certain to be relegated but if they want to make one last run at a great escape, they'll need to win on Sunday. Genoa are one point behind Lecce, who occupy the last place above the relegation zone.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Genoa

It's been an awful season for Genoa, who typically finish in the middle of Serie A. The Old Fool are unlucky to be in the relegation battle as they have tallied 38.53 expected points compared to their actual total of 27 points.

Most of Genoa's misfortune has come on defense, where they've let in 60 goals season despite conceding just 49.26 xG.

Despite what their record shows, Genoa have been an average team at Luigi Ferraris Stadium. The Griffins boast -1.3 xG differential at home, suggesting they've been nearly nine goals better than their actual goal differential at home this season.

Genoa matches average 2.66 total expected goals and 73% of their games have featured at least three goals. The Old Fool should find the back of the net against one of the weaker defenses in Serie A.

SPAL

After a two-year stint in Serie A, SPAL look doomed to a trip back down to Serie B in 2020/21.

Unlike Genoa, SPAL's underlying metrics don't paint a prettier picture than reality as SPAL sit in the bottom-three in both expected goals for and expected goals against.

Even though they only produce 1.13 xGF per match, games involving SPAL feature 2.95 total expected goals overall and 3.07 total xG when they are on the road. Fifty-five percent of SPAL games this season have gone over 2.5 goals.

Previous Meeting

The reverse fixture ended in 1-1 draw back in November, but should have featured more goals. SPAL and Genoa combined for 30 shots in the game and the expected goals report showed a total of four goals should have been scored.

Analysis

I don't see much value betting either side, but my model projects this match for 2.89 expected goals, so I'm going to back the Over 2.5 at -106.

• • Genoa projected odds: -120 (54.53% win probability)
  • SPAL projected odds: +347 (22.37%)
  • Draw projected odds: +333 (23.10%)
  • Genoa projected xG: 1.80
  • SPAL projected xG: 1.09