Sevilla vs. Dortmund Betting Preview: Over/Under Showing Value in Champions League Match
David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images). Pictured: Sevilla goalkeeper Yassine Bounou Bono.
- Sevilla host Dortmund in a Champions League clash on Wednesday as short home underdogs.
- Is either team worth backing in this spot, or do some notable absences provide value on the total?
- Brett Pund breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Sevilla vs. Dortmund Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-124 / +102)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||TV | Paramount+|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Borussia Dortmund makes the trip to Spain on Wednesday to take on Sevilla in the third round of games in Group G of the Champions League.
The German club comes into the match in second with a victory over Copenhagen and a narrow defeat to group leaders Manchester City.
Meanwhile, the hosts were dominated by the Cityzens and could only secure a draw in Denmark, which sums up the team’s rough start to the season.
There will be a lot of missing attacking players, which could lead to a low-scoring affair in this one.
Manager Julen Lopetegui’s days are numbered at Sevilla, with rumors swirling that a replacement has already been picked to take over once he departs.
This isn’t really a huge surprise given how the team has performed this season. Entering this match, Sevilla is 17th in La Liga and just one point above the relegation zone.
Meanwhile, the club hasn’t done any better in the UCL, holding a -3.8 xGDiff and allowing 4.8 Expected Goals through two matches, according to fbref.com.
Sevilla has also only generated one lone Expected Goal and a Big Scoring Chance, which is toward the bottom of the competition in both categories.
Dortmund has been a solid side this season, but the German club will have to perform without multiple key starters on Wednesday.
Stars Marco Reus, Giovanni Reyna, Mats Hummels and Marius Wolf are all set to miss out on the match due to injury, while summer signing Sébastien Haller has yet to feature for the team after tumor surgery right before the campaign.
One player who will be available is teenage wunderkind Jude Bellingham, who has attracted interest from multiple clubs across Europe.
This is also a terrible scheduling spot for Dortmund, with the big derby against Bayern Munich coming up on Saturday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even with all of the injuries in the squad, the bookmakers at FanDuel are still listing the visitors as the +150 favorite on the moneyline. I’m not looking to back either of these teams at the moment, but I do see value in the total.
Consequently, my best bet is for the total to fall Under 2.5 Goals at +102 odds.
Yes, I do understand all of the struggles Sevilla has had defensively this season. However, I don’t think Dortmund will take advantage due to all of the players missing with injuries.
Plus, the Germans will be more than happy to just take a draw in this one with the big derby coming up this weekend.
You also have to look at how the Spanish club has fared offensively against top competition this season. In games against Barcelona, City, Villarreal and Atlético Madrid, Lopetegui’s team only has one goal on 2.5 Expected Goals and just one Big Scoring Chance created.
Dortmund held Manchester City to just 0.9 xG, and this Sevilla squad is nowhere near as good as manager Pep Guardiola’s side.
The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+102)